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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/115122

    Title: 應用倒傳遞網路預測日本來台航空客運需求之研究
    Other Titles: A Back-propagation Neural Network Model to Forecast Air Passenger Demand from Japan to Taiwan
    Authors: 章國威;王薏婷;陳淑娟;郭仕堯
    Keywords: 倒傳遞網路;需求預測;航空客運;back-propagation neural networks;forecast;air passenger
    Date: 2010-09
    Issue Date: 2018-10-09 12:10:19 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 管理實務與理論研究編輯委員會
    Abstract: 航空運量之預測,自策略規劃至實際營運皆具不可忽略之重要性,本研究採取監督式學習網路中之倒傳遞神經網路(Back-Propagation Network),自行撰寫MATLAB程式,建構日本來台航空客運需求預測模式。本研究透過回顧相關文獻,市場分析與初步評估,決定輸入變數,再運用去除法、加入法與貢獻圖,檢驗其影響程度。實證結果發現以日本人口、日本就業人口、日本個人所得、日本GDP、日本GNP、外幣匯率、航班數量、臺灣個人所得等8項變數,預測日本來台航空客運量之平均絕對百分誤差(Mean Absolute Percentage Error)爲0.34%,預測能力極佳。探討輸入變數得知,航班數量、臺灣個人所得與外幣匯率之影響最大。
    Relation: 管理實務與理論研究 4(3), p.120–132
    DOI: 10.29916/JMPP.201009.0007
    Appears in Collections:[Department of International Tourism management] Journal Article

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