淡江大學機構典藏:Item 987654321/115079
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    題名: Seven-Day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions in Bifurcation Situations with Guidance-On-Guidance for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
    作者: Hsiao-Chung Tsai;Russell L. Elsberry
    關鍵詞: Tropical cyclone intensity forecasts;Tropical cyclone intensity spread predictions;Intensity bifurcation situations
    日期: 2018-08
    上傳時間: 2018-10-04 12:10:57 (UTC+8)
    出版者: Springer
    摘要: An objective technique to detect and predict intensity bifurcation situations in a five-day Weighted Analog Intensity forecast technique for the western North Pacific (WAIP) has been extended to seven days. A hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to the N analog intensities to separate them into two clusters, which are considered to represent a substantial intensity bifurcation if a threshold maximum velocity difference of 15 kt is satisfied. Two important modifications have been made to develop the bifurcation version for seven-day WAIP forecasts. First, the number of track analogs has been increased from 10 analogs to 16 analogs, which results in larger sample sizes and better performance. Second, separate intensity bias corrections are calculated for the two cluster WAIP forecasts rather than using the same 16-analog intensity bias correction. If an always perfect selection of the correct cluster WAIP forecast of each bifurcation situation is made, a substantial improvement in the intensity mean absolute errors is achieved relative to the original WAIP forecasts based on all 16 of the best analogs. These perfect-cluster selection WAIP forecasts have smaller bias errors and are more highly correlated with the verifying intensities at all forecast intervals through 168 h. Furthermore, the Probability of Detection is improved for the perfect-cluster selection and more realistic intensity spreads are specified. A simple guidance-on-guidance technique is demonstrated to assist the forecasters in selecting the correct WAIP cluster forecast in bifurcation situations.
    關聯: Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences 54(3), p.421-430
    DOI: 10.1007/s13143-018-0008-0
    顯示於類別:[水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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