複合動態系統廣泛地存在可靠度的應用中，在複合動態系統的設計中，每一元件的失效，皆會造成存活的元件需要承受更高的應力，並增加故障率。本論文使用Burr XII型分配作為元件壽命的基準分配，採用次方趨勢條件比例故障率模型描述系統的元件失效風險，使用Metropolis-Hasting馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅演算法來估計模型中的參數，並以蒙地卡羅模擬評估估計方法的成效。 The composite dynamic system has been widely used in practical reliability applications. In the design of composite dynamic system, each component failure induces higher loading on surviving components, and then increases the hazard rate of surviving components. We consider using the Burr type-XII distribution as the lifetime model of components in a composite dynamic system and use power-trend hazard rate function to model the hazard function. Moreover, we develop the Metropolis-Hasting Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for estimating the model parameters. A simulation study is carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed estimation method.
