| 摘要: | 聯合國氣候變化綱要公約（Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC）至2016年止，業已舉行22次締約國會議，世界各國在UNFCCC之架構下，已採行各項政策工具，以期達成各自之減排目標，台灣雖非UNFCCC之簽約國，但仍提出將於2020年達成溫室氣體排放總量減少30%以上之減碳目標，據此，本文綜觀歷屆研究，建立生產函數、二氧化碳排放函數及能源消費函數，並依行政院主計總處所編2015年中華民國行業標準分類中之農業、工業、服務業及運輸部門，蒐集2000-2015年共15年之資料，採用固定效果模型，分析各變數間之關係，目的是為探討政府宜採行何項施政計畫，將對台灣節能減排最具成效，並依據實證結果提出相關之政策建議。實證結果發現能源消費對二氧化碳排放呈現正向顯著關係，建議宜提升能源使用效率以達成減排效果；產業結構同樣對二氧化碳排放量呈現正向顯著關係，建議改善產業結構以達成減排目的；另外，部門別二氧化碳排放密度對部門別二氧化碳排放量為正向顯著相關，建議改善能源結構以降低二氧化碳排放量；最後，實證結果亦發現無論當期或前期，我國部門別國內生產毛額增加，將導致部門別能源消費增加，並造成部門別二氧化碳排放增加，因此，建議未來經濟發展宜配合節能減排政策。
The Conference of the Parties（COPs）to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change（UNFCCC）has now run for twenty-two time. Under the UNFCCC framework, countries around the world have used policy instruments to achieve their emission reduction targets respectively. Taiwan is not a signatory of the UNFCCC, but still set a goal of 30% emission reduction of greenhouse gas by 2020. In view of the above reason, this paper reviews previous studies, establishing production functions, carbon dioxide emission functions and energy consumption functions, collecting 2000 to 2015 for a total of 15 years information in the agriculture, industry, services and transport sectors classified by the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, Executive Yuan, from the Republic of China in 2015. We use the fixed effect model to analyze the relationship between the variables. The purpose of this paper is that explore what a project plan would be adopt by the government leading the most effective in energy-saving emission reduction in Taiwan. The empirical results show that energy consumption has a significant positive impact on carbon dioxide emission. According to results, this suggests in improving energy efficiency to achieve the effect of reducing emissions. In addition, the industrial structure has a significant positive relationship on carbon dioxide emissions. In this case, improving the industrial structure would achieve the purpose of reducing emissions. Additionally, the carbon dioxide emission density in sectors has a significant positive impact on carbon dioxide emissions in sectors. The adoption of improving energy structure can reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Finally, the empirical results also found that current or early gross domestic production increases energy consumption in sectors, and then it increases carbon dioxide emission. This implies that future economic development would be consistent with energy-saving emission reduction policies. |
