時至今日，共同基金已經是一個十分常見的財務投資工具，截至2017年2月為止國內的投信公司已經達到了39家的數目，而所發行的共同基金數目也達到了738支，是目前許多人在進行財務投資或是規劃退休生活時都會考量到的一項金融投資工具。造成此一現象的原因是，共同基金所能投資的產業領域非常廣泛，而共同基金目前也已經進步到能符合每一位投資者的投資目標。因此，在目前共同基金被廣泛使用的情況下，如何正確的篩選出具有獲利可能性與未來性的共同基金去投資就成了主要的目標，本文透過「四四三三法則」與「SPRT檢定」在金融海嘯時期、空頭市場時期、多頭市場時期三個不同市場時機之下進行3個月投資與6個月投資之基金表現計算出勝率、投資報酬率以及夏普指數進行比較。研究結果顯示，本文所使用之兩種篩選方法皆能創造高於同期所有基金之平均報酬率，此外在金融危機時期「SPRT檢定」能夠產生較高的平均報酬率，而在空頭市場以及多頭市場時期之下則是「四四三三法則」能夠有較高的平均報酬率。 Nowadays, mutual funds are already become a common financial investment tools, Securities Investment Trust and Consulting Institutes have reached the number of 39, and issued mutual funds also reached the number of 738, until February 2017. These investment tools are currently considered to adopt in the financial investment or planning retirement life. The reason for this phenomenon is that mutual funds can invest in a wide range of industries, and also been improved to meet the investment objectives of each investors. Therefore, mutual fund is widely used in current and our main goal is how to correctly select profitability and prospectively target. This paper calculates the winning percentage, return on investment and the Sharpe index of the three-month and six-month investment performance under the "4433 rules" and "SPRT test" during the period of financial crisis, the bear market and the bull market. The evidences show that the two methods used in this paper can create higher return than the average of all funds, otherwise the "SPRT test" can create a higher average return in the financial crisis, while in the bear market and the bull market, "4433 rules" can have a higher average return than "SPRT test".
