金融商品存在著各種風險，風險即是對未來產生的不確定性。當投資人預期的報酬率與實際報酬率不相等時，此差距即稱為風險(Risk)。一般而言，期貨可作為一種有效的避險工具，對於股市的投機者來說，增加了其投資組合的複雜度。使市場交易變得更加熱絡，推動金融市場的投資，也增加了投資人的選擇以及資金流動性。因此，期貨之訂價與基差應有許多可因素彼此相互影響，本研究期望找出可以影響兩者之決定性因素，並提供實務上投資之參考，以提升投資人、經理人之投資績效。 The financial product exists in variety risk, and the risk is uncertainty in future. The gap is called risk, when that is different between expected return and actually return. In general, futures are effective hedge tool. It increases the complexity of the portfolio to the speculators. The futures lead market to more active, diverse and more liquidity. Thus, There are lots of influencing factors between pricing and basis. Therefore, this thesis looks forward to figure out the decisive factor.
