中國海軍戰略變遷之研究 : 從權力平衡理論角度分析

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Title:	中國海軍戰略變遷之研究 : 從權力平衡理論角度分析
Other Titles:	Strstegic change of Chinese navy-analysis from balance of power theory
Authors:	常漢青;Chang, Han-Ching
Contributors:	淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所碩士在職專班翁明賢
Keywords:	權力平衡;對外戰略;全球化;海軍戰略;Balance of Power;Foreign strategic;Globalization;Naval Strategy
Date:	2017
Issue Date:	2018-08-03 14:35:29 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	從2003年12月26日中國前國家主席胡錦濤於毛澤東誕辰110周年座談會上，強調要堅持「和平崛起」的道路和獨立自主的和平外交政策。這項宣示正式標誌卓中國已具備走向大國政治的自信。尤其中國海軍遠洋作戰能力的不斷提升，其是否會循19世紀海權發展的軌跡走向世界，並改變美國與西方國家所認知的區域平衡概念，是值得我們探究的。1983年中國在鄧小平時代將毛澤東的軍事戰略由準備「早打、大打、打和戰爭」修訂為「積極防禦」。到江澤民時代頒布第一本國防報告書開始，歷年的國防報告書均強調中國堅持「永不稱霸、永不擴張」的國防政策、「人不犯我、我不犯人，人若犯我，我必犯人」的軍事戰略指導方針，以及中國的發展要打破「國強必霸」地理原則。但為何以美國、日本及西方強權國家均不認同，是歷史發展的必然，還是大國意義型態的影響，亦或是大國內部利益團體的策略。國際關係理論從發展開始至今始終受到美國強勢的主導，這是無法跳脫的事實，因為美國仍是現今世界上唯一的超級強權。因此，對於中國未來海軍戰略的變遷，本論文試圖從中國歷代對外政策的歷史研究與西方現實主義「權力平衡」理論的角度，探索中國海軍戰略的變遷與未來可能的發展方向。其次探究中國海軍發展發展過程與面對威脅時的可能作為。最後，本論文將從中國人的性格、對海洋的認識及國際環境因素等面向的研究，分析與預測中國海軍未來發展方向。 On December 26, 2003, then Chinese President Hu Jintao vowed to maintain the path of ”Peaceful Rise” and an independent and peaceful diplomatic policy on the 110th anniversary celebration of Mao Zedong’s birthday. This declaration officially signified that China has already obtained the political confidence of a great power. With the continued improvement in PLA Navy’s far sea operational capabilities, it is worthy of further study and research that whether the PLA Navy would follow the 19th century sea-power approach and change the regional balance currently recognized by the United States and Western countries. Deng Xiaoping revised China’s military strategy from Mao Zedong’s “fighting an early, large-scaled nuclear war” to “active defense” in 1983. Starting from Jiang Zemin’s first Defense White Paper, subsequent Chinese Defense White Paper all stressed a defense policy that would “never seek hegemony, never seek expansion,” a military strategic guideline that says “we will not attack unless we are attacked, and if we are attacked, we will certainly fight back,” and that China’s development will not follow the “strong nations are bound to seek hegemony” principle. It is intriguing to note that the United States, Japan, and other Western powers do not believe China’s claim, no matter it was due to historical development norms, great power’s ideology, or the strategic considerations of domestic interest groups in those powerful countries. It is an inevitable fact that the development of international relation theories has always been dominated by the United States from the very beginning, because the United States is still the only super power in the world. This thesis attempts to explore the future transition and possible direction of China’s naval strategy from both a Chinese historical foreign policy perspective and a Western realism “balance of power” perspective. In addition, the development process of the PLA Navy and its possible reaction to threats will also be discussed. Finally, the PLA Navy’s future development direction will be analyzed and predicted based on Chinese people’s character, knowledge of the ocean, as well we international and environmental factors.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of International Affairs And Strategic Studies] Thesis

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