International institutions and state behavior : a case study of the influence of the treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons on Sweden, South Korea, and North Korea's compliance and conformity

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Title:	International institutions and state behavior : a case study of the influence of the treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons on Sweden, South Korea, and North Korea's compliance and conformity
Other Titles:	國際制度與國家行為 : 不擴散核武器條約對於瑞典、南韓與北韓的行為影響之案例研究
Authors:	森亞博;Kostadinov, Yavor
Contributors:	淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所博士班李大中;Li, Da-Jung
Keywords:	國際制度;核不擴散;核裁軍;遵守條約;符合規範;International Regimes;Nuclear non-proliferation;nuclear disarmament;Compliance;Conformity
Date:	2017
Issue Date:	2018-08-03 14:34:51 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	一年後，我們將迎接核不擴散條約橫越半世紀的時刻。在愛爾蘭、紐西蘭等國強力倡導核不擴散與核裁軍的誠心支持下，尤以核不擴散規範的成功，與促進核技術在醫療、農業、工業及研究的和平用途，使該條約已然演變為近乎普遍國際的制度。此外，除了定期的雙邊條約，聯合國大會也於 2016 年通過一項決議，開始就核裁軍法律的觀點框架進行談判，在此同時，有三種作為也持續削弱該制度的影響力：不遵守條約、策略性符合規範及蓄意不符合規範。這項質性個案研究的目的在於（1）就制度而言，提出一門行為結果的類型學，對強調遵約凌駕其他的此項觀點予以糾正（2）透過國際制度與社會心理學理論，配合主體間性標準的應用，推論並排序優先影響遵守與符合核不擴散及裁軍制度的因素（3）藉由南韓、北韓與瑞典的個案分析，以過程追蹤的研究方法，探討因素的改變是如何並在何種情況下影響行為變化。以安全需求為導向的一派，欲改變核武擁有國的共同認知，而以人道主義一派的視角言之，則始終如一地鎖定焦點在武器本身。有論點表示，核主觀主義扭曲了核武的觀感，也因此其旨在詆毀核武的共享認知，能於談判中發揮重要的影響力，同時有助勸服較客觀的觀點。經證據顯示，逐漸鞏固的規範與核技術應用於和平價值的削弱，卻無相應進展的裁軍作為，讓自主權喪失的擔憂與日俱增，並從而促使在鼓勵國家真正放棄核武的同時，卻增加策略性不遵守條約與不符合規範的負面影響，也因而造成爭論更為兩極。本研究強調核不擴散與核裁軍兩者蓬勃發展的至關重要性，並建議核武國家加入談判過程，防止進一步核擴散的風險。 In a year the world will celebrate half a century since the advent of the Treaty on the Non-proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. With the genuine support of strong advocates of nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament, such as Ireland and New Zealand, the treaty has evolved into a nearly universal international regime with particular success in strengthening regulations in non-proliferation, and in the promotion of nuclear technologies for peaceful uses in medicine, agriculture, industry and research. Furthermore, in addition to periodical bilateral treaties, in 2016, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution to start negotiations on a legal framework for nuclear disarmament. At the same time, three types of behavior continue to erode the regime – one of non-compliance, one of strategic conformity, and one of overt non-conformity. The aims of this qualitative case study are 1) to present a typology of behavioral outcomes in respect to institutions, so to rectify the predominant emphasis on compliance, 2) to deduce and prioritize factors affecting compliance with, and conformity to the nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament regime from international regimes and social psychology theories by applying intersubjective criterion 3) to process-trace how changes in the factor influence change in behavior and under which circumstances drawing on the cases of South Korea, North Korea and Sweden. Security driven perception attempts to change the shared knowledge on nuclear weapons toward their possessors while the humanitarian perception aims to maintain the focus on the weapons themselves. It is argued that nuclear subjectivism has led to distorted perception of nuclear weapons and thus the shared knowledge structure by aiming to stigmatize nuclear weapons could provide an important leverage in negotiations and contribute to persuade a more objective view. The evidence suggests that gradual strengthening of regulations combined with the decreasing value of nuclear technology for peaceful uses and without corresponding progress in disarmament increase fear of loss of autonomy and consequently contribute negatively to the increase in strategic non-compliance and non-conformity while invigorating states genuinely renouncing nuclear weapons thus polarizing the debate. The research stresses the vital importance of dynamism in the development of both pillars non-proliferation and disarmament and recommends nuclear weapon states join the negotiation process or risk further proliferation.
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