自中國大陸提出供給側改革以及去庫存的政策方針後，中國大陸的房地產就陷入瘋狂，一線城市房價不斷飆升，使得房地產泡沫化更趨嚴重。中國現在的房價，放在美國、日本或其他發達國家，房地產泡沫早已破滅。而中國大陸房地產泡沫在大家預期破滅卻未破滅的原因，主要是因為中國大陸的國情、經濟發展狀態、房地產市場以及其特殊的政治體制。 本研究首先概述美國與日本房地產泡沫的始末，分析其泡沫破滅的原因及共通點。再就中國大陸房地產1996年至2016年的發展歷程分成四輪調控做闡述，以目前測量房地產泡沫中最具指標性的測量方法探討中國房地產泡沫化的程度。房地產泡沫往往伴隨政策、措施、需求、主體四個方面因素的變化，基於中國大陸房地產現狀，結合房地產泡沫化程度等指標，探討中國大陸房地產泡沫化形成的原因。 討論房地產發展對中國大陸經濟方面的貢獻以及房地產泡沫破滅對中國大陸可能帶來的衝擊，並在中國大陸防範泡沫破滅的政策方面，分別就中國大陸歷年來對房價調控之政策作概述。最後對中國大陸的國情、經濟發展狀態、房地產市場以及其特殊的政治體制做一個綜合結論。 After mainland China implemented the reform of the supply side and getting rid of inventories, the real estate prices in China have escalated rapidly, first - tier cities prices soaring, making the real estate bubble more serious. China ''s current housing prices would induce to a burst bubble on the real estate if it occurred in the United States, Japan or other developed countries. The reason that the real estate bubble can still last in mainland China is mainly due to China''s national conditions, economic development, the real estate market and its special political system. This study first summarizes the beginning and end of the real estate bubbles in the United States and Japan, and analyzes the causes and commonalities of the bubble burst. And then the development of China''s real estate from 1996 to 2016 is divided into four rounds of regulation for discussion. We explore the extent of China''s real estate bubble by using the current measurement of real estate bubble in the most important measurement method. The real estate bubble is often accompanied by the change of the four factors of policy, measure, demand and subject. We also discuss the causes of the formation of real estate bubble in mainland China based on the current situation of real estate in mainland China and the degree of real estate bubble. This study further examines the contribution of real estate development for China’s economy and the possible impacts of the bursting of the real estate bubble on China. We also present the China’s price regulation policy to prevent the bubble from bursting over the years. Finally, a comprehensive conclusion of the mainland China''s national conditions, economic development, the real estate market and its special political system are made in the last chapter.
