| 摘要: | 中國國家主席習近平在2013年9月及10月出訪中亞和東南亞國家期間，先後提出共建「絲綢之路經濟帶」和「21世紀海上絲綢之路」，意即「一帶一路」，該倡議跨越歐亞大陸，為海陸並舉的雙向倡議，其強調促進區域經濟一體化發展，加速縮小區域發展差距，此外，亦注重推進中國國內與國際間的合作發展，有效利用雙邊資源及市場，拓展全球經貿版圖及掌握區域經濟主導權。
然而實施過程因各方參與者和中國決策者所強調重點各不相同，「一帶一路」雖可為參與國家國內基礎建設帶來資金及設備協助，然亦對區域經濟體的既有利益及權力分配造成影響，包含弱化俄羅斯在中亞勢力的影響力以及限縮印度在印度洋的戰略發展空間，對美國、日本等未參與國家之政經局勢也將帶來不確定因素。
而位處「一帶一路」周邊的臺灣則不可避免地受到此龐大經濟體的影響，若政策措施配套得宜，或可有助拓寬臺灣經貿市場，但亦有可能因加入中國主導的「一帶一路」，使我國在國際上的參與程度及能見度係建立在中國的讓利上，值予重視的是，在「讓利」過程中，臺灣是否需付出不對等政治代價，均值得我國政府值予重視。
另一方面，「一帶一路」在政策推行過程面臨眾多挑戰，其參與國家眾多，相關沿線國家是傳統地緣政治和民族、宗教、文化、制度等眾多矛盾盤根錯節的地區，也是當今世界安全問題最為嚴重的地區，且各國貿易政策及投資環境迥異，各國邊界管理機關效率低及貪腐行為，嚴重阻礙企業在「一帶一路」沿線國家的投資，而除必須面對非傳統安全潛在風險及投資挑戰，亦須承擔來自中國國內企業非良性競爭下的投資營運問題，中國海外投資起步較晚，缺乏海外投資經驗，從境內協調機制看，中國企業走出去困難眾多，但協調不易仍為根本因素，種種因素均為中國「一帶一路」發展帶來不確定性滯礙因素。
Xi Jinping, president of China and Communist Party chief, during his visit to Central Asia and Southeast Asian countries in September and October 2013, has proposed to build the "Silk Road Economic Zone" and "21st Century Maritime Silk Road", which means "One Belt and One Road". The initiative is to promote regional economic integration and to accelerate narrowing the regional development gap, in addition, this initiative also focus on promoting cooperations and developments inside China and with other countries. Using these bilateral resources and markets effectively, to expand the global economic and trade territory and control the regional economic dominance.
However, it also has some negative effect to other regional economies’ existing interests and the distribution of power, which include weakening Russia''s influence to the Central Asian and limit the strategic development of India in the Indian Ocean space. It also bring some uncertainties of the political and economic situation to the United States, Japan and other non-participating countries.
Taiwan, which is surrounded by " One Belt and One Road ", is inevitably affected by this economy. If the policy, which is made by our government, are appropriate, it may help broaden the economic and trade market for Taiwan. However, if Taiwan government joins this initiative, our level of participation and the visibility in the international community may depends on China’s “mood”.
On the other hand, there are many challenges during the process of the implementation of the policy. There are about 68 countries participate in this initiative, the relevant countries have traditional geopolitics, ethnic, religious, cultural, institutional and other contradictions of the region, and also have the most serious security problems in the region. Besides, the country''s trade policy and investment environment are different, the border authorities have low efficiency and corruption behavior, obstruct the enterprises’ investment in the " One Belt and One Road " seriously. Except need to face these non-traditional potential security risks and investment challenges, " One Belt and One Road " also need to cope with the problems from China''s domestic enterprises ,such as the non-benign competition under the investment operation. The investment overseas for China started late and lack of the investment experience. Viewed from the domestic coordination mechanism, the Chinese enterprises have many difficulties in going abroad, but the fundamental factor is hard to coordinate, and all the factors will bring uncertainty factors to the development of China''s " One Belt and One Road ". |
