習近平對台政經政策之研究

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Title:	習近平對台政經政策之研究
Other Titles:	Xi Jinping's political and economic policies toward Taiwan
Authors:	劉紋綺;Liu, Wen-Chi
Contributors:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所碩士在職專班張五岳
Keywords:	和平統一;一國兩制;一中原則;九二共識;告台灣同胞書;反分裂法;國家安全法;新南向政策;Peaceful unification;One country twosystem;One China principle;92 Consensus;Notify compatriots in Taiwan;Anti Secession Law;National Security Law;New Southbound Policy
Date:	2017
Issue Date:	2018-08-03 14:33:09 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	兩岸自1949開始對峙，迄今已達68年之久，中共對台政策變動多次，一方面是因為國際因素；另一方面則因中共領導人的更迭所致。如今已是中共第五代領導人習近平掌政。由習近平的從政經歷表可知，他對台商以及台灣的情況知之甚深。那麼他對台政策究竟如何呢？他與前任領導人的對台政策有無差異呢？習近平對台政策究竟是朝著「硬」的走，還是朝「軟」的走，還是仍然採用「兩手策略」，硬的、軟的都來。何時以「硬」的為主？何時以「軟」的為優先？對那些事務採「硬」的策略？對那些事務採「軟」的策略？都值得我們關切。本文分成五章，第一章為緒論，論述研究目的與動機、研究途徑與方法、研究架構、研究範圍與限制等。第二章是對習近平之前的中共領導人對台政策的回顧分析，期望藉由文獻回顧能理解他們的對台政策。第三章是探討習近平對台政經政策的內涵及因素。希望透過文獻分析法能夠分析他的對台政策，並以比較法的概念分析習近平與其前任對台政策不同的關鍵之所在。第四章論述習近平對台政經政策及其影響。本章是從實證研究的角度，就個案分析，希望能發現在蔡英文上任後，習近平對台政策是否有所變化。第五章結論，經本文採用歷史途徑文獻分析法之研究後，發現習近平的對台策略基本上是沿襲中共歷任領導人的政策，遵守「和平統一、一國兩制」、「一中原則、九二共識」的原則，採取「軟硬兩手策略」靈活運用，堅持「反獨促統」。經本文研究發現，若是蔡英文總統不接受「一中原則」、「九二共識」，兩岸將會陷入僵局，又因為美國已退出TPP，使得蔡英文總統的「新南向政策」受阻，對台灣經貿發展並不有利，再加上中共在國際上對我之打壓，兩岸的關係將會更加困窘。 Since 1949 the two sides of the Taiwan Straits has begun confrontation, which has lasted for 68 years, many changes have been taken place in the CPC''s policies toward Taiwan, partly because of international factors and on the other hand by changes in the leadership of the Chinese Communist party. Xi Jinping is the fifth generation leader of the Communist Party of China. Xi Jinping''s political experience shows that he knows Taiwanese businessmen and Taiwan’s situations very well. What is his policies toward Taiwan? Are there any difference between his polices toward Taiwan and his predecessors’? Does the Xi Jinping''s policies towards Taiwan is "hard", or "soft", or "two tactics", both hard and soft? When does he take "hard" as the main factor? When is the "soft" priority? What about those things will be use the strategy of "hard"? Which will be use the strategy of "soft"? All deserve my attention. This thesis is divided into five chapters. The first chapter is the introduction, discussing the research purpose and motivation, research approaches and methods, research framework, research scope and limitations, etc. The second chapter is a review and analysis of the policies of the Chinese Communist Party leaders before Xi Jinping, hoping to understand their policiestowards Taiwan through literature review. The third chapter is to discuss the connotation and factors of Xi Jinping policies on Taiwan. I hope that through literature analysis, I can analyze his policies toward Taiwan and analyze the key difference between Xi Jinping and his predecessor''s policies towards Taiwan by comparing the concept of Taiwan. The fourth chapter discusses Xi Jinping''s political and economic policies toward Taiwan and its influence. This chapter from the perspective of empirical research, the case analysis, hoping to find that after Cai Ying wen became president, Xi Jinping''s policies toward Taiwan has changed. The final chapter is conclusion, by using historical approach of literature analysis, found the policies toward Taiwan Xi Jinping basically follow the former predecessors of China policy, abide by the "peaceful reunification and one country two systems" and "92 consensus" principle, in principle, take "hard and soft hands strategies flexibly, adhere to the" anti- independence and promoting reunification ". It will be found by this research, If President Cai Ying wen does not accept the "one China principle" and "92 consensus", both sides will be stalled, and because the United States has made out of TPP, President Cai Ying wen''s "New South" policy is blocked, is not favorable for the Taiwan economic and trade development, coupled with the CPC in the world to me down, on both sides of the relationship would be more embarrassing.
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