後冷戰時期東協國家與中國、台灣三邊關係之研究

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Title:	後冷戰時期東協國家與中國、台灣三邊關係之研究
Other Titles:	Study on trilaterial relations among ASEAN, China, and Taiwan in the post cold war era
Authors:	林冠吟;Lin, Kuan-Yin
Contributors:	淡江大學亞洲研究所碩士在職專班林若雩;Lin, Juo-Yu
Keywords:	戰略三角;東協;中國;台灣;重返亞洲;Strategic Triangle;ASEAN;China;Taiwan;Pivot to Asia
Date:	2017
Issue Date:	2018-08-03 14:31:29 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本文為東協國家與中國、台灣三角關係之研究，旨在透過研究文獻與國際現勢的觀察，探討東協、中國與台灣三邊關係之互動與變遷。由於東協、中國與台灣之間呈現既競爭又合作之複雜關係，欲同時掌握三邊關係現況、演進與未來發展趨勢實非易事。因此，本文採Lowell Dittmer戰略三角理論，分析東協、中國與台灣之間三角關係的變化，及其對區域政治、經濟與安全影響之政策意涵。　　本文研究目的有三：其一，從歷史發展脈絡中釐清東協、中國與台灣三邊關係之發展，進而闡述三者區域政策之基本立場；第二，運用戰略三角理論分析東協、中國與台灣三邊關係之變遷，並說明三邊關係變遷對區域政治、經濟與安全之影響；最後，深入探討影響東協、中國與台灣三邊關係發展的關鍵因素，特別是美國重返亞太、馬習會、2016台灣總統大選等。　　研究發現，若區分2008年以前、2008-2012以及2013-2016三個時期，則東協、中國與台灣三邊關係歷經了以東協為樞紐之羅曼蒂克型三角、以台灣為樞紐之羅曼蒂克型三角，以及兩岸互為夥伴之穩定結婚型三角等三階段的動態變化。此外，無論就國際／體系層次、國家／單元層次、甚至個人層次，任何突發事件或政策轉變都可能造成三邊關係的調整，進而影響整體區域政經情勢之變遷。　　This thesis aims to discuss trilateral relations among ASEAN, China and Taiwan based on reviewing literature and regional situation. Because of the complex relations of competence with cooperation, it’s difficult to explore the real situation among these three countries. This thesis analyzes the changeable relations and its policy implication by using Lowell Dittmer’s strategic triangle theory. 　　It has three research purposes: first, to clarify the development of trilateral relations and each actors’ policy stance in historic context; second, to analyze the change of trilateral relations and its influence on regional politics, economy, and security by using strategic triangle theory; finally, to deeply explore the key factors relating to development of trilateral relations, especially pivot to Asia, Ma Xi Summit, and 2016 Taiwan presidential election. 　　It finds that, observing different period in pre-2008, 2008-2012, and 2013-2016, we can conclude the three phase of dynamic evolution which include Romantic Triangle permitting ASEAN as pivot, romantic triangle permitting Taiwan as pivot, and Stable Marriage Triangle between China and Taiwan. Besides, whenever accidents or policy-shift occur in level of international/ system, domestic/ unit, or individual, it would result in corresponding adjustment of trilateral relations and regional political economy change.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of Asian Studies] Thesis

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