日本多年來承受著不景氣的陰霾之下，而逐年提昇的觀光產業市場，深受其重視，並且成為經濟施政的重點項目之一。肇始於1978年美國的空運管制解除法（Airline Deregulation Act），各國開始競相倣效進行，並且相互簽定開放天空協定（Open Skies Agreement），加速並融入航空自由化的浪潮。其協定對訪日外國旅客數的變化所帶來的影響力，為本論文所欲探討之決定因素，並加以分析與實證。 日本在2010年開始積極跟進，陸續與世界各國簽訂開放天空協定，以擴大及推進其觀光政策。有關探討影響訪日觀光客的決定因素之論述，學者中澤榮一（2009）以2003年之日本旅遊活動 （Visit Japan Campaign：VJC）的入境影響與效果作為分析之主體，並加以實證。 本研究係以日本的開放天空協定為研究分析之主體，結合日本與訪日觀光客（自然對數），及其所屬國（以下簡稱為夥伴國）之實質GDP乘積（自然對數）、日本與夥伴國之距離（自然對數）、東日本大地震因素等共四個變數，並收集整理2003年至2015年36個國家之追蹤資料，並以重力模型來分析並實證對訪日觀光之變化。 本研究經以重力模型分析實證之結果，日本簽訂開放天空協定對訪日觀光客之影響效果符合假設之推論，放寬政府對航空政策的管制與干預，在推進觀光施政中，可以得到正面影響之效果。 In the past years, there is a long term depression in Japan. The increase in the international travel market had been focused and developed with its important economic policy by Japan. In 1978, the Airline Deregulation Act is a United States federal law that deregulated the control of airline industry. There are many countries in the world following the policy, and begin to sign the “Open Sikes Agreement” each other to accelerate and integrate the airline industry. The effect of the agreement on the change of the inbound tourism to Japan, is the determinants of the thesis to be discussed and analyzed. Japan began actively to sign the “Open Sikes Agreement” with other countries successively to expand and promote its tourism policy from 2010.Regarding to the discussion on the main determinants of inbound tourism in Japan, the scholar Nakazawa Eiichi (2009) takes the effect of the “Visit Japan Campaign” (VJC) project as the topic of analysis and verification. This research is based on the effects of “Open Skies Agreement” in Japan as the main research theme. It connected to inbound tourism in Japan (natural logarithm) and the product of real GDP (natural logarithm) with Japan and other countries (hereinafter referred to as partner countries) the inbound tourism belongs to, and the geography distance between Japan and partner countries (natural logarithm), and Tohoku earthquake and tsunami factors on total five variables above by Gravity Model to analyze and verify the changes with collected processing data of 36 countries from 2003 to 2015 year. This research is based on evident based result of Gravity Model, signing Open Skies Agreement for inbound tourism in Japan with hypothesis assumption that it is important reducing government interference and control on aviation policy.
