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    Title: 卡特政府處理美中建交決策過程之研究
    Other Titles: The decision-making process of the establishment of U.S.- China diplomatic relations
    Authors: 李芃;Lee, Peng
    Contributors: 淡江大學美洲研究所碩士班
    陳一新;Chen, I-Hsin
    Keywords: Carter Administration;decision-making process;U.S.-China-Taiwan triangular relations;中美建交;卡特政府;台美斷交;美中建交決策過程
    Date: 2017
    Issue Date: 2018-08-03 14:30:19 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本論文以常見於政治學研究的案例研究法與比較方法來分析卡特政府處理「中美建交」的決策面貌。筆者運用艾里遜博士(Graham T. Allison)與哲立考博士(Philip Zeikow)合著的《決策本質》(Essence of Decision)所提出的「理性行為者模式」、「組織行為模式」、以及「政府政治模式」作為本論文的研究架構,並且從決策理論的詮釋中,抽理出一些假設,以強化理論的驗證。
    在研究內容上,筆者大量參考美國國家檔案解密資料、相關外交決策人士的回憶錄、與政治人物的訪談紀錄、美中台三邊關係研究專書等,從中比較、分析卡特政府外交團隊針對各個決策選項的利益考量、政府組織「內部邏輯思維」、組織文化、標準作業流程以及官僚之間的利益衝突所引發的政治勢力角力,如何影響美國政府的「中美建交」政策。
    本論文研究中發現,因為兩個主要的原因,卡特總統加速美國與中國建交的速度。第一是考量到美中戰略和經濟利益,第二是國安會顧問布里辛斯基(Zbigniew Brzezinski)的影響,,其建交過程用秘密外交的方式達成目的。
    從理性行為者研究中發現,卡特總統為什麼和中國建交,可從下列三個理性來看:(一)戰略利益─「聯中制蘇」,藉由改善和中國的關係,以抑制蘇聯在全球方面的表現。(二)商業利益─前進中國市場,重振衰退的美國經濟,銷售美國產品。(三)商業利益─獲得中國石油的供應,化解石油來源不夠的威脅。
    從組織行為模式的探討中發現,組織表現受「專業能力」制約的影響,當一個組織的專業運作能力愈強,則該組織在決策制定過程中影響決策結果的能力也就愈高。卡特政府時期的國安會即符合此敘述,也是影響「中美建交」此決策最多的組織。
    在官僚模式研究中發現,參與決策的官僚對某一議題的認知、所掌握的資訊、專業能力、與總統的關係、所代表組織的利益與立場以及是否能與主要決策者產生共識等,均是影響他在政治拔河中是否能取得議價優勢的變數。其中最重要的因素在於參與決策的官員是否能揣摩上意,與總統的想法產生共識。
    整體來說,艾里遜的決策理論在本案例研究中的適用性均獲得普遍的印證。艾里遜認為組織運用資源的方式及效率會決定組織能夠提供多少政策選項,從而限定決策者的選擇空間。相較於國安會,國務院在「中美建交」的過程中,運用資源的方式和效率皆處於劣
    勢,因此卡特總統與國安會越走越近,最終加速建交的腳步。
    總之,從本案例研究中,筆者發現一個政策的成功與否和總統的立場有明顯的關聯。布里辛斯基厭惡蘇聯,想加速中美建交的時程,因而說服卡特總統加速關係正常化,因兩人立場相似,中國和美國在卡特上任約兩年上下,完成談判,正式建交。
    This thesis adopts widely used case-study method and comparative method in political science to analyze the decision-making process of Carter Administration’stackling the establishment of U.S.-China Diplomatic Relations in 1978. It applies Rational Actor Model (RAM), Organizational Behavior Model(OBM) and Governmental Politics Model(GPM) developed by Dr. Graham Allison and Dr. Philip Zeikow in their Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis as the theoretical framework. Meanwhile, I extract some hypotheses from the decision-making theory so that I can verify the vindication of the theory by testing these hypotheses in the related case studies. In research context, I refer to a large amount of documentsdeclassified by U.S. National Archive, memoirs of relevant foreign policy decision-makers, conversational records of political figures, studies of US-China-Taiwan triangular relations to compare and analyze the interest reckoning of the Carter Administration, logic reasoning in governmentalorganizations,organizational culture, standard operation procedures(SOPs), pulling and hauling between
    bureaucrats caused by conflict of interests, and how they influence the U.S. government’s tackling the establishment of U.S.-China diplomatic relations in 1978. This thesis finds that President Carter speeded up the pace of establishing U.S.-China diplomatic relations because of
    two main reasons. One is the consideration of global economy and strategy between the U.S. and China, and the other is the influence from his national security adviser Brzezinski. The Carter administration tackled the process normalization in secret ways. From the perspective of RAM,
    there are three rational considerations that can help illustrate why Carter decided to establish diplomatic ties with China. First, by improving the relations with China, the U.S. could restrain the actions of the Soviet Union. Second, by gaining access to the Chinese market, the U.S. could sell the American products to China. Only in this way, could the U.S. economy be recovered. Third, to
    get the petroleum from China, so the U.S. can solve the decline of the petroleum. (Drop this
    sentence, China also needed the import of petroleum from abroad) From the perspective of OBM, this study finds that the behaviors of organization are influenced by professional capability. When the organization has more professional capabilities, it can influence the result more during the decision-making process. The National Security of Carter’s Administration fits in with the statement. From the perspective of GPM, this study findsthat perception, information, professional capability, access to the president, organizational attitude and share-values with the key decision-makers are the variables to determine who, among the decision-making participants, wouldl gain the upper hand in the process of political bargaining. It also finds that who, among the decision-making participants, would be able to read precisely their boss’ mind, and how the president would decide
    himself or promote a consensus among decision-making participants. Generally speaking, Allison’s decision-making theory is valid. Allison postulates that the efficiency of options an organization can propose, thereby constraining the choices of decision-maker. Comparing with the National Security Council, the State Department was less capable and less efficient in the eyes of President Carter.As a result, Carter was increasingly getting closer to the NSC. Eventualy, President Carter decided to
    speed up the process of establishing U.S.-China diplomatic relations.
    To sum up, this thesis finds that a policy’s success or failure is largely determined by the
    President’s stance. Brzezinski who disliked the Soviet Union preferred to promote the process of
    normalization in a faster pace. Once he successfully convinced Pesident Carter, to speed up the
    process of normalization thus became the consensus between them and the top priority of the U.S.
    national interests.
    Appears in Collections:[Graduate Institute of the Americas] Thesis

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