|摘要: ||本論文以常見於政治學研究的案例研究法與比較方法來分析卡特政府處理「中美建交」的決策面貌。筆者運用艾里遜博士(Graham T. Allison)與哲立考博士(Philip Zeikow)合著的《決策本質》(Essence of Decision)所提出的「理性行為者模式」、「組織行為模式」、以及「政府政治模式」作為本論文的研究架構，並且從決策理論的詮釋中，抽理出一些假設，以強化理論的驗證。|
This thesis adopts widely used case-study method and comparative method in political science to analyze the decision-making process of Carter Administration’stackling the establishment of U.S.-China Diplomatic Relations in 1978. It applies Rational Actor Model (RAM), Organizational Behavior Model(OBM) and Governmental Politics Model(GPM) developed by Dr. Graham Allison and Dr. Philip Zeikow in their Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis as the theoretical framework. Meanwhile, I extract some hypotheses from the decision-making theory so that I can verify the vindication of the theory by testing these hypotheses in the related case studies. In research context, I refer to a large amount of documentsdeclassified by U.S. National Archive, memoirs of relevant foreign policy decision-makers, conversational records of political figures, studies of US-China-Taiwan triangular relations to compare and analyze the interest reckoning of the Carter Administration, logic reasoning in governmentalorganizations,organizational culture, standard operation procedures(SOPs), pulling and hauling between
bureaucrats caused by conflict of interests, and how they influence the U.S. government’s tackling the establishment of U.S.-China diplomatic relations in 1978. This thesis finds that President Carter speeded up the pace of establishing U.S.-China diplomatic relations because of
two main reasons. One is the consideration of global economy and strategy between the U.S. and China, and the other is the influence from his national security adviser Brzezinski. The Carter administration tackled the process normalization in secret ways. From the perspective of RAM,
there are three rational considerations that can help illustrate why Carter decided to establish diplomatic ties with China. First, by improving the relations with China, the U.S. could restrain the actions of the Soviet Union. Second, by gaining access to the Chinese market, the U.S. could sell the American products to China. Only in this way, could the U.S. economy be recovered. Third, to
get the petroleum from China, so the U.S. can solve the decline of the petroleum. (Drop this
sentence, China also needed the import of petroleum from abroad) From the perspective of OBM, this study finds that the behaviors of organization are influenced by professional capability. When the organization has more professional capabilities, it can influence the result more during the decision-making process. The National Security of Carter’s Administration fits in with the statement. From the perspective of GPM, this study findsthat perception, information, professional capability, access to the president, organizational attitude and share-values with the key decision-makers are the variables to determine who, among the decision-making participants, wouldl gain the upper hand in the process of political bargaining. It also finds that who, among the decision-making participants, would be able to read precisely their boss’ mind, and how the president would decide
himself or promote a consensus among decision-making participants. Generally speaking, Allison’s decision-making theory is valid. Allison postulates that the efficiency of options an organization can propose, thereby constraining the choices of decision-maker. Comparing with the National Security Council, the State Department was less capable and less efficient in the eyes of President Carter.As a result, Carter was increasingly getting closer to the NSC. Eventualy, President Carter decided to
speed up the process of establishing U.S.-China diplomatic relations.
To sum up, this thesis finds that a policy’s success or failure is largely determined by the
President’s stance. Brzezinski who disliked the Soviet Union preferred to promote the process of
normalization in a faster pace. Once he successfully convinced Pesident Carter, to speed up the
process of normalization thus became the consensus between them and the top priority of the U.S.