| 摘要: | 2001年9月11日，美國國內發生震驚全世界的恐怖攻擊，這天是美國無法抹滅傷痕的回憶。自建國200餘年歷史以來，美國本土首次遭到恐怖攻擊。九一一事件並不是恐怖攻擊的開始，也不是恐怖攻擊的結束，然而卻是恐怖主義發展與全球反恐活動的重要轉捩點，掀起全球反恐的新風貌。
911事件將人類從「後冷戰時」帶入到「反恐時代」，人類揮之不去的恐怖主義陰影，再度落入以「軍事安全」為思考主軸的悲愴時代。但這個人類所面對的新危機和以往軍事對立並不一樣；恐怖份子隱藏於一般民眾中，對軍事力量而言是個「想像的敵人」，而不知何時、何地，以及如何發生的恐怖攻擊則是個「想像的危機」。
911事件凸顯美國國土安全的弱點，相關重大基礎建設都成為恐怖份子鎖定的目標。然而，小布希的戰略思維將恐怖攻擊視為國際的反恐戰爭，認為恐怖攻擊乃結合全球範圍的蓋達組織和大規模毀滅性武器（Weapons of Mass Destructions, WMDs），因此把傳統國境內的執法（law enforcement）的作為，推升為全球反恐戰略（Global War on Terror），在對抗恐怖主義的戰略架構下進行情報蒐集以及執法的運作。
本篇論文採用艾里遜（Graham Allison）所歸納出來的決策三大理論模式：「理性行為模式」（Rational Actor Model）、「組織行為模式」（Organizational Behavior Model）及「政府政治模式」（Governmental Politics Model）來個案分析探討小布希政府在恐攻危機之後的處理決策過程。
理性行為模式中，可以發現美國政府經過理性思考後，為了維持世界強權國家的地位以及確保國土不受到威脅，在利益之下，會想盡辦法剷除對國家威脅的外來勢力。從總統小布希國家戰略看出，911事件前，美國政府發覺中國大陸國力快速崛起，採取與東北亞國家聯合圍堵，防止中國大陸挑戰美國強國地位，在亞太地區戰略部屬特別重視；911事件後，阿富汗蓋達組織的襲擊以及邪惡軸心國伊拉克、北韓和伊朗發展大規模毀滅性武器，美國政府除了與盟國對恐怖組織襲擊報復外，對國內外安全防護機制進行改革，達到美國國家最大利益。
在組織行為模式中，小布希總統在恐攻後，把國家安全會議權力擴大，成為第一線反恐作戰主要決策單位。小布希政府藉由參與國家安全會議依照結構、程序、人脈三者進行決策，美國政府可以快速擬訂出打擊恐怖份子的策略。相較於重視本位主義的國務院，國安會是最接近總統的幕僚單位且理念較接近總統的決策想法。美國國會雖然在911 事件決策過程中，影響力有限，不過美國國會還是利用本身執行權力提供小布希總統反恐所需的相關資源。
在政府政治模式國安會、美國國會以及國務院之間的關係，可以觀察出每個單位對伊拉克戰爭出兵的看法不盡相同，國務院及國務卿認為需要解除對伊拉克的制裁，並且避免對伊國民眾造成無謂的傷害，因此反對在伊拉克採取軍事行動。國安會國安顧問及美國國會議員認為，美國本土安全已經受到威脅，應該採取軍事行動，消除威脅。最後小布希還是選擇對伊拉克出兵。
本論文的主旨是美國政府為了維持國土安全以及強權地位，利用戰略手段如軍事行動、圍堵政策，追求國家最大利益；國家安全會議權力擴大成為反恐最重要的決策單位；國安會顧問萊斯在反恐決策過程中，扮演反恐決策重要角色因為與總統是最接近的核心幕僚。
September 11, 2001, the United States occurred a terrorist attack shocked by people all over the world. This day was the most forgettable and terrified event in the U.S. Residents’ memory. Since the United Stare was founded more than 200 years, it was the first time to be under attack in the homeland. 911 attacks were neither the beginning nor the end of a terrorist attack. However, it was a critical turning point between the development of terrorism and global activities on anti-terrorism.
The thesis uses three theoretical models of decision-making from Graham Allison—Rational Actor Model, Organizational Behavior Model and Government Politics Model to analyze the Bush’s administration’s decision making process of after 911 attacks.
In RAM, the U.S. government eliminates treats from other countries to maintain its hegemony and to make its homeland safety based on pursuing national interests. Before 911 attacks, President Bush paid attention on deploying national strategy in Pacific Asia area because of the rise of Mainland China. Bush Administration made use of containment with allies in Asia-Pacific area to keep U.S. hegemony from China''s challenge. After 911 attacks, the U.S. government took military actions toward Al Qaeda and eliminated threats of WMDs from the evil axis such as Iraq, North Korea and Iran to maximize national interests.
In OBM, after attacks, President Bush increased power of National Security Council which became the major anti-terrorism agency. The Bush administration could quickly formulate a strategy to combat terrorists by participating making decisions in the council based on structure, procedures and connections. National Security Council is the closest to the president because its ideas were closer to the president''s decision-making ideas compared with the Department of State. Although the US Congress was not an important governmental agency in the process of decision-making, but the US Congress provided President George with resources related to counter-terrorism.
In GPM, There were different opinions about military actions toward Iraq among the National Security Council, the US Congress, and the State Department. Officials in Department of State and the Secretary of State thought that it was not suitable to take military actions toward Iraq because it would cause damage to Iraqi people. Therefore they were opposed to taking military action toward Iraq. National Security Advisors and U.S. lawmakers believed that national interests of the U.S. had been threatened and it was necessary to eliminate the threat from Iraq. Finally, President Bush chose to take military actions toward Iraq.
The main theme of this thesis is that the U.S. government maintains its hegemony and homeland safety by means of military actions and containment to maximize national interests; The power of National Security was increased, so NSC became the most critical governmental agencies in the process of decision-making related anti-terrorism； the NSC adviser Rice played the most important role in process of decision-making because she was a cabinet who was close to the president. |
