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    Title: An alternative approach to the analysis of secular stagnation : evidence from the United States
    Other Titles: 分析長期增長停滯的另一種方法 : 源自美國的實證
    Authors: 劉佳慈;Liu, Chia-Tzu
    Contributors: 淡江大學美洲研究所碩士班
    柯大衛;Kleykamp, David
    Keywords: 低成長率;低通貨膨脹率;低貨幣流通速度;泡沫化;高儲蓄;低投資;low growth rate;low inflation rate;low interest rate;monetary of velocity;bubble;high saving;low invest
    Date: 2017
    Issue Date: 2018-08-03 14:29:49 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本文關注的是這種下降緩慢的性質,以及貨幣政策是否可以解釋。我們提出的基本概念是美國的低利率政策已經引起了國內外的資產泡沫,激起儲蓄的慾望,同時降低了投資傾向。我們嘗試用更好的方法去了解為什麼最近貨幣的流通速度一直在變化,以及這些變化如何影響貨幣增長對通貨膨脹和出口增長有什麼衝擊。
    我們不會試圖解釋名義GDP如何在通貨膨脹和實際增長之間分配的變化,這是一個非常複雜和多變的過程。我們可以從熟悉的交換方程式開始研究貨幣、產出和價格之間的關係。
    本論文的核心主題是增長速度下降這個現象不僅在全球更在發展國家,特別是美國要對經濟增長不佳和通貨膨脹率下降負責,所以本研究認為貨幣流通速度下降的主要原因是貨幣需求和財富與收入的比例都是持續的上升地,儘管不是短期的。
    This thesis is concerned with the nature of this slowdown and whether it can be explained by poor monetary policy. The underlying idea we propose is that low interest rate policies in the US have generated asset bubbles (at home and abroad) that have encouraged the desire to save more, while at the same time reducing the propensity to invest. We seek to better understand why the income velocity of money has been changing recently and how these changes have affected money growth''s impact on inflation and output growth.
    We will not attempt to explain how that a change in nominal GDP is divided between inflation and real growth, which is a very complicated and variable process. We may begin our study of the relation between money, output, and prices by looking at the familiar equation of exchange. The central theme of this thesis has been that a secular fall in velocity in developed countries around the world, and particularly in the US, is responsible for both their poor growth performance and low inflation. The main reason why that velocity is falling is that both the stock demand for money and the ratio of wealth to income are rising secularly, though not in the short run.
    Appears in Collections:[Graduate Institute of the Americas] Thesis

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