本論文旨在探討美國政府關閉關塔那摩監獄計畫的可行性、過程中遭遇的受阻因素以及風險分析。首先講述監獄成立的背景與目的，接著經過監獄內爆發出一連串的醜聞與爭議後，歐巴馬決意在上任後立即推動關閉監獄的計畫。然而計畫中的缺漏與不完整，使得國會議員與民眾對政府在關塔那摩囚犯的安置工作上產生不信任感與反彈的聲浪。關閉監獄可能產生的國家安全疑慮，使得政府的計畫無法取信於大眾與國會的支持，也成為了日後政府在推行計畫上受到國會以立法的手段百般阻撓的原因，關閉計畫最後隨著歐巴馬卸任後宣告失敗。本論文採用美國國家情報總監所提供的數據資料進行分析，研究結果意外顯示了，自關塔那摩監獄釋放後的人「再犯率」遠低於國內罪犯的再犯比率，這也意味著美國人對於這些囚犯可能再度帶來的恐怖威脅之預期心理，高於實際的發生率。不過，隨著近年美國社會面臨頻繁發生的「孤狼式恐攻」，多數的美國民眾對於恐怖主義的懼怕與陰影揮之不去，這也使得關塔那摩監獄在可預見的未來，將持續地營運下去。 The purpose of the thesis is to identify (i) the feasibility for the U.S. government’s plan to close Guantanamo detention facility. (ii) The obstacles and difficulties the government has faced in the process of implementing the closure plan. (iii) The potential risks after it is shu down. Starting with the history and purpose of the establishment of the Guantanamo detention camp, and then moving on to the scandals and issues that have erupted in the prison which makes the then-President-elect, Barack Obama vows to shut it down after he takes the Oval Office. Nevertheless, due to the deficiencies of Obama’s initial closure plan/executive orders, the Congress members and American masses has become skeptical and unsure about the government’s capability to handle the disposition of the Guantanamo detainees. The potential threats of closing Guantanamo has brought up some serious concerns about U.S. national security which has also become the main reason the U.S. government’s plan could not win the support and approval from the Congress and the majority of the American society. The plan failed after Obama left the office. In Chapter 4, we analyze the data provided on DNI’s website, the results has shown that the rate of recidivism among the released Guantanamo detainees is generally much lower than the domestic ones. However, considering the fact that the so-called “Lone Wolf Attack” has happened rather frequently in the American society in the recent years. Only if the American people could keep themselves away from the threat posed by the terrorists, will the Guantanamo detention facility be closed.
