Cooperating for Diversification: Partnership Selection in Preferential Trade Agreements in East Asia

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题名:	Cooperating for Diversification: Partnership Selection in Preferential Trade Agreements in East Asia
作者:	Leu, Guan-Yi 呂冠頤
贡献者:	淡江大學中國大陸研究所
日期:	2012-05
上传时间:	2017-12-27 09:15:39 (UTC+8)
摘要:	This dissertation addresses two questions. First, given the fact that the majority of East Asian states were previously lukewarm toward PTAs and had already achieved membership in the WTO, why then at the turn of the century did they begin to pursue PTAs? Second, as PTAs emerged among certain pairs of states, what factors determined PTA partnership selection, and under what conditions were states more likely to form PTAs? This paper applies the method of agreement, and selects China, Japan and ASEAN-5 members to examine the conditions that encouraged PTA partnership. This dissertation provides a "diversification explanation" to systematically explain behavioral patterns of states that participate in PTAs. First, it explains the general incentives of states to diversify existing trade ties and buffer against destabilizing effects related to skewed trade patterns. The paper concludes that concern over a dependence on the American market led East Asian states to pursue alternative policies that would allow them to explore new markets and expand intra-regional trade. Second, it explains the pattern of partnership selection, and specifies that states with declining or less developed economic ties share a mutual need to diversify. To prevent the emergence of asymmetrical dependence, small and medium-sized economies are more likely to conclude PTAs on multiple fronts. In contrast, large economies will be less likely to pursue PTAs with each other, especially among states with a high level of trade interdependence. The studied cases support the above logic. ASEAN states were often secondary trading partners in the region and became more preferred candidates to neighbors for PTAs. The Japan-ASEAN PTA reinforces decreasing trade and investment ties, and iv reduces Japan's increasing trade dependence on China while making ASEAN more attractive for Japanese FDI. The China-ASEAN PTA facilitates and expands the scope of trade and investment, as economic ties have been slow to develop. It also explains why a PTA has not occurred between Japan and China, whose bilateral economic ties have become rapidly intertwined. Finally, the paper identifies a two-level-game factor or mechanism that facilitated the formation of PTAs among certain pairs of states. I show that the logic of diversification is not only applicable to East Asia, as other states have made use of PTAs to diversify existing trade and investment ties.
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