| 摘要: | This dissertation addresses two questions. First, given the fact that the majority of
East Asian states were previously lukewarm toward PTAs and had already achieved
membership in the WTO, why then at the turn of the century did they begin to pursue
PTAs? Second, as PTAs emerged among certain pairs of states, what factors determined
PTA partnership selection, and under what conditions were states more likely to form
PTAs? This paper applies the method of agreement, and selects China, Japan and
ASEAN-5 members to examine the conditions that encouraged PTA partnership.
This dissertation provides a "diversification explanation" to systematically explain
behavioral patterns of states that participate in PTAs. First, it explains the general
incentives of states to diversify existing trade ties and buffer against destabilizing effects
related to skewed trade patterns. The paper concludes that concern over a dependence on
the American market led East Asian states to pursue alternative policies that would allow
them to explore new markets and expand intra-regional trade. Second, it explains the
pattern of partnership selection, and specifies that states with declining or less developed
economic ties share a mutual need to diversify. To prevent the emergence of
asymmetrical dependence, small and medium-sized economies are more likely to
conclude PTAs on multiple fronts. In contrast, large economies will be less likely to
pursue PTAs with each other, especially among states with a high level of trade
interdependence.
The studied cases support the above logic. ASEAN states were often secondary
trading partners in the region and became more preferred candidates to neighbors for
PTAs. The Japan-ASEAN PTA reinforces decreasing trade and investment ties, and
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reduces Japan's increasing trade dependence on China while making ASEAN more
attractive for Japanese FDI. The China-ASEAN PTA facilitates and expands the scope of
trade and investment, as economic ties have been slow to develop. It also explains why a
PTA has not occurred between Japan and China, whose bilateral economic ties have
become rapidly intertwined. Finally, the paper identifies a two-level-game factor or
mechanism that facilitated the formation of PTAs among certain pairs of states. I show
that the logic of diversification is not only applicable to East Asia, as other states have
made use of PTAs to diversify existing trade and investment ties. |
