The effect of minimum wages on US unemployment rates : an econometric analysis

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Title:	The effect of minimum wages on US unemployment rates : an econometric analysis
Other Titles:	分析美國最低工資法的就業效應 : 計量經濟模型之應用
Authors:	宋宜璇;Sung, Yi-Hsuan
Contributors:	淡江大學臺灣與亞太研究全英語碩士學位學程柯大衛;Kleykamp, David
Keywords:	青年失業率;最低工資;美國;共整合;Minimum wage;Unemployment;The Untied States;Federal;econometric analysis
Date:	2016
Issue Date:	2017-08-25 00:01:06 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	美國最低工資自1940年代至今被視為最爭議性議題之一。近年來許多團體相信提高最低工資有助於青年就業率之提升，同時於2015年超過六百位美國經濟學家達成共識，並且相信最低工資的提升不會對失業率造成影響。但從經濟基礎的供需曲線下研究後，我們可以了解到提高最低工資，的確會有一定數量的影響。因此，此環節值得我們作更深入的研究。在本篇論文中，研究者以文獻為基礎，討論美國經濟學發展過程中對於提高最低工資看法之演變。從1940年代大部分學者對於提高最低工資皆持負面看法，直到1993年 David Card 和Alan Krueger以素食餐廳為研究基礎，提出此議題並不會使得低技術勞工失業，反而因著有較高的薪資，勞動者更加願意投入市場，使得失業率降低，並且可改善人民生活水準。而在本文中，研究者在實證分析中以計量經濟模型為基礎，使用共整合模型分析青年失業率與美國聯邦最低工資之長期關係，並使用誤差修正模型討論其短期之回歸關係。經過本論文探究之後，首先，我們發現提高最低工資的確會增加青年失業率，其次，現今美國許多州政府提議將最低工資自一小時7.2美元提升為一小時15美元，假設此為聯邦最低工資，則美國將增加大約四十萬青年失業口。 The effect of minimum wage on the US youth unemployment rate has been a controversial issue since 1940s. The reason we chose this topic because of it has attracted considerable attention recently in the world. Many groups see the minimum wage as a ready tool for improving living and equalizing the distribution of income. From the literal review we may understand the trend towards acceptance of a minimum wage has been diversity. David Card and Alan Krueger claimed that if government increases the minimum wage, the unemployment displacement effect is very small. But from other articles, some of economists cannot agree with them. From this point view, we decided to look into the effect of minimum wage on the Untied States. In the empirical analysis chapter, first of all, we used cointegration regression to analyses the long run relations between the federal minimum wage and youth unemployment rate. Secondly, we tried to use error correction mechanisms to understand the short run relations of these two major issues. In the empirical analysis and finding, we find a significant long run and short run relation between youth unemployment rate and federal minimum wage. However, raising the minimum wage has been a controversial issue for more then half century, and we may understand that if the Untied States government increases the minimum wage to $15 per hour (many states already did in 2015), then it may cost up to 400,000 young unemployment workers in the society.
Appears in Collections:	[Master's Program in Taiwan and Asia-Pacific Studies] Thesis

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