| 摘要: | 2001年後越南經濟政策轉變為以「邁向工業化與現代化國家」為發展
方向，同時加速對外開放政策，例如：加入WTO、參與RCEP與TPP談
判，並與多個國家或經濟體簽署自由貿易協定(FTA)，藉以擴大貿易利益，
促進經濟成長，造成越南經濟情勢產生重大轉變。本文將利用世界銀行以
及越南國家統計局等機構之資料庫的數據從GDP、人均GDP、外國直接投
資(FDI)、三級產業、進出口情勢以及對外開放擴大市場等面向，探討越南
經濟自1945-2014年的發展情勢。
由本文的分析發現21 世紀越南的GDP 與人均GDP 持續擴大，但它
們的成長率放緩；外國直接投資進入越南的核准案件數、申請資本額持續
擴大，規模比20 世紀大很多，且執行資金額成長3 倍之多，2008 年之後
更是維持在每年11,000佰萬美元上下；產業結構尚未定型正繼續移轉中；
製造業在進出口貨物中都是最大宗，且新增培養自己的領域產業與高科技
產業的生產力以及鼓勵創新，2012年貿易初次出現順差；越南努力成為一
個新出現的貿易樞紐國。上述的種種變化意味著越南經濟結構正在進行結
構移轉。相對於20世紀，21世紀的越南有新的轉變，也有21世紀才出現
的新經濟情勢，這些轉變與新情勢，將會是推動越南未來經濟發展的新引
擎。
2016後越南經濟是否因國際經整合帶動而延續革新與持續轉型成長，
值得後來學者繼續觀察。上述數據分析及國內與國外轉變的闡釋，有助於
學者研究與了解2016年後越南未來經濟的新想像。
Since 2001, Vietnam’s economic policy has been shifted to the direction
of “Industrialization and Modernization”. At the same time, Vietnam
accelerates its open-door policy joining WTO, participating in TPP and RCEP
negotiation, signing FTAs with many countries/entities, to enlarge international
trade gains and promote economic development. The Vietnamese economy has
revealed some new development patterns. This thesis will analyze Vietnamese
economy based on serval factors, e.g., gross of domestic product (GDP), GDP
per capita, foreign direct investment (FDI), three economic sectors, exportimport
situation and open-door for expanding market, etc., by using data
compiled by World Bank and General Statistics Office of Vietnam.
From the analysis we concluded several significant features in Vietnamese
economy in Twenty-first Century. Both sizes of GDP and GDP per capita
increase continuously while the growth-rates of both GDP and GDP per capita
decrease. Both capital and the numbers of registered projects of FDI increase.
The amount of implementation FDI capital is more than triple of that in
Twentieth Century. Moreover, that amount is around 11,000 million US dollars
annually since 2008. The industry structure transformation is still going, but
manufactured product always has the largest share in exported and imported
goods. Vietnamese start to promote industry of their own specialty, develop
productive forces of high technology products. Trade deficit first occurred
surplus in 2012.
These features indicate that there are some changes, or even structure shift,
going in Vietnamese economy. These new situations and changes would be a
new engine striving Vietnam economic development toward its new ear in the
Twenty-first Century. Furthermore, the recent changes in international
situation will be another important implement forces for economic
development in Vietnam. Vietnam’s economic circumstance sounds to be a
FTA hub since 2016. For all of these, the new economic development in
Vietnam will be more worth exploring and investigating than before. The
finding of this thesis will be helpful for future Vietnam studies. |
