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    Title: 美國貨幣政策對國際房屋價格之影響 : 1985-2015
    Other Titles: The effect of US monetary policy on international housing prices : 1985-2015
    Authors: 陳韋君;Chen, Wei-Jiun
    Contributors: 淡江大學美洲研究所碩士班
    柯大衛;Kleykamp, David
    Keywords: 貨幣政策;房價;利率期限結構;美國聯準會;直接影響;Monetary policy;Housing price;Term Structure;Federal Reserve Bank;Direct Effect
    Date: 2016
    Issue Date: 2017-08-24 23:59:49 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: 本研究使用加拿大、德國、西班牙、法國、英國、愛爾蘭、義大利、日本以及南韓在1985年至2015年的季資料,利用混合迴歸、隨機效果、固定效果、組間估計與分量迴歸等五個估計方法,來探討以下兩個問題:1.美國聯準會推動的貨幣政策是否會對國外房屋價格產生影響。2.美國聯準會對國外房屋價格產生的影響是間接的還是直接的。
    研究中使用五個不同的估計方法,針對修改過後的利率期限結構分析,用注重「複合利率」,不是僅僅根據長期或短期利率來考慮美國聯準會政策對國外房屋價格成長之直接和間接影響,我們發現美國聯準會可以同時擁有直接與間接影響國家房屋市場的影響力。直接的方式,像是透過利率和資本流動並配合可能的貨幣供應變動產生影響;而間接影響則是會通過人民對經濟前景變化的信心程度,以及國外貨幣政策的潛在變化的預期性,尤其是當房屋已金融化時,美國聯準會的貨幣政策對其各國家的資產市場產生深遠的影響影響更為明顯。研究結果證明美國利率期限結構對外國房價有直接的影響,且直接效果大過於間接影響效果。
    The purpose of this research is to identify (i) whether there is an effect on International housing prices from the Fed monetary policy. (ii) The effect on International housing price from Fed monetary policy is direct or indirect. We use quarterly data from Dallas fed bank which includes Canada, Germany, Spain, French, UK, Ireland, Italy, Japan and South Korea from 1985 to 2015.By applying 5 different estimation methods with adjusted term structure that focusing on the complex interest rate instead of neither long term interest rate nor short term interest rate on the effect on International housing price from Fed monetary policies. We found out that Fed monetary policy can influence international housing price both direct and indirect. The direct way is caused by the change of interest rate and capital flow with the money supply. The indirect way is caused by the confident that people have to economic prospered changes and the potential expectation in the foreign monetary policies. The monetary policy will cause further effect especially when housing is financialized.
    Appears in Collections:[美洲研究所] 學位論文

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