中國石油安全戰略及與其委內瑞拉石油合作

機構典藏 > College of International Affairs > Graduate Institute of the Americas > Thesis > Item 987654321/111686

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Title:	中國石油安全戰略及與其委內瑞拉石油合作
Other Titles:	China oil security strategy and Sino-Venezuelan oil cooperation
Authors:	黃睿葒;Huang, Ruei-Hong
Contributors:	淡江大學美洲研究所碩士班宮國威;Kung, Kwo-Wei
Keywords:	石油安全;中國海外油氣投資;貸款換石油;委內瑞拉石油業發展;查維茲;Oil Security;China overseas oil investment;Venezuelan oil industry;loans-for-oil;Hugo Chávez
Date:	2016
Issue Date:	2017-08-24 23:59:44 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	在進入21世紀後得利於開採技術進步，使得非傳統油氣蓬勃發展，尤其美國「頁岩革命」對能源市場及地緣政治產生重大影響，2014年中旬後油價下跌重創產油國經濟。而中國於1990年代後才成為影響國際石油市場重要因素，自1978年改革開放以來的經濟成長，工商業生產及交通運輸規模擴張加重對石油的消耗。自1993年起成為石油淨進口國後，石油消耗缺口逐年擴大。為了保障其石油安全，中國於1993年後開始對外展開投資以掌握油氣量，主要透過海外油氣併購、參股或貸款換油氣等方式來獲取「份額油」。面對已被其他國際石油公司所搶佔開發成本及風險低的石油市場，中國海外油氣的投資大多分布於中東及北非地區，儘管自2011年以來於經合組織的成員國油氣投資逐漸增加。儘管委國原油蘊藏量為世界之最，但由於查維茲相關社會主義政策，如:將石油收益用於社會福利而非用於油業再投資及在2003年委國石油公司大罷工後，重創其產能等影響，使石油產量日益下降。中國與委內瑞拉兩國於石油、金融及外交領域的關係在查維茲執政後更加緊密，最大原因在於其政治意識形態及國內石油業政策轉變，使中國得以透過多筆貸款方式來取得石油及增加其影響力。但自2014年以來國際油價低迷加上委國長期錯置經濟政策，使委國陷入衰退。在面對委國高債務違約的風險下，中國則放寬其貸款期限或每日需償還數量。儘管委國目前仍遠不足以成為影響中國石油安全關鍵國家，面對委國不斷升高的經濟、社會和政治風險繼續提供貸款，基於石油安全考量、石油收益或是意識形態，其背後更有著中國對於拉美地區外交佈局的重要戰略意涵。 Abstract: The US shale revolution has reshaped the global energy industry. In the mid-2014, oil price has more than halved, and this made some petrostates suffer economic and political turmoil, like Venezuela、Nigeria and Russia…etc. China''s oil self-sufficiency ended in 1993, due to its rapid economic development、urbanization、motorization and expanding middle class population. Currently China depends on foreign imports for over fifty percent of the oil it consumes, and half of this imported oil is from the Middle East and North Africa. Due to these regions socio-political unrest and highly depends on a single chokepoint-the Strait of Malacca, China has many reasons to worry about its energy security. Since the last 1990s, Chinese State-Owned Enterprises(SOEs) started to seek oil abroad to secure its oil security by FDI、joint venture or loans-for-oil . Since 2011, Chinese SOEs are moving away from the riskier parts of the world towards more politically stable investment climates such as those in OECD member countries. Shortly after becoming a net oil importer, China began to seek out trade and investment opportunities in Venezuela’s oil sector. The proven oil reserve in Venezuela is recognized as the largest the world, but its oil production has declined since its peak in the 1990s.When Hugo Chávez become president, Venezuela has increased public participation in the oil sector. Chávez used oil rents to develop social welfare program, instead of investing in Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA) to increase production. The general strikes of 2002–2003 had brought the company operations to a halt. It was only after Hugo Chávez took power, bilateral relationship became close. Moreover, since 2007 China has become Venezuela’s main source of foreign financing by loans-for-oil deals worth upwards more than 50 billion dollars. Since the mid-2014, oil price has been collapsing, Venezuela’s long-term wrong economic and political system and worsening economic and social problems have made Chinese face the high-risks of Venezuela sovereign default. Besides securing oil security and gaining oil rents, China also has its own strategy toward Latin America, and Venezuela remains a geopolitical prize worth competing for.
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