中國在釣魚臺爭端中的行動(2010-2015) : 行動戰略的觀點

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Title:	中國在釣魚臺爭端中的行動(2010-2015) : 行動戰略的觀點
Other Titles:	China's actions on the Diaoyutai dispute(2010-2015) : view of strategy of action
Authors:	王信力;Wang, Sing-Lie
Contributors:	淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所博士班施正權;Shih, Cheng-Chuan
Keywords:	薄富爾;行動戰略;釣魚臺;海洋爭端;中日關係;Andre Beaufre;Strategy of action;Diaoyutai;Maritime Dispute;Sino-Japanese relations
Date:	2016
Issue Date:	2017-08-24 23:56:50 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	2010年與2012年發生在釣魚臺列嶼(中國稱釣魚島，日本稱為尖閣群島)的兩件事，深刻影響中國與日本的外交關係。2010年的中國漁船與日本海上保安廳公務船撞船事件與2012年日本政府將釣魚臺部分島嶼「國有化」事件，引發中國進行了一連串的外交、經濟手段來對日本施壓，並在國際上透過批評日本打破「擱置爭議」的默契。但是中國卻沒有運用軍事力量來解決此一爭端，而是採取運用海事警察對釣魚台海域進行巡護，突破過去日本獨佔釣魚臺行政管理權的現況。此一發展趨勢影響區域安全形勢甚鉅。究竟中國為何會採取這些「非軍事手段」來反制日本，而不是直接以武力奪取釣魚臺？值得深入研究。本文嘗試透過法國戰略家薄富爾將軍提出的「行動戰略」觀點，分析中國在釣魚臺爭端的政策、總體政治路線、總體戰略路線以及戰略行動，以理解中國面對海洋權益爭端的行動模式。並進一步探究日本、美國及區域國家的反應，以分析中國所採取的行動是否達成目標。本研究希望能夠透過對中國在釣魚臺爭端的行動之研究，理解中國處理主權爭端的行動模式，並預測中國與周邊國家主權爭議的未來發展。本文認為中國藉由「非軍事為主，軍事為輔」的手段與行動戰略的「總體戰略行動間接模式」相符，試圖透過非軍事手段的「腐蝕」來消耗日本的耐心，並改變日本在釣魚臺爭端的政策。但卻因為可能干涉第三方做出的反應所引起的反效果，或許會讓中國「得不償失」。 In 2010 and 2012, there were two disputes occurring in the Diaoyutai Islands (aka Diaoyu Islands in China and Senkaku Islands in Japan) which profoundly impacted on the diplomatic relations between People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Japan. In 2010, one Chinese fishing boat collided against one Japan Coast Guard vessel, and in 2012, Japanese government purchased some parts of the Diaoyutai Islands and make them “nationalization.”In response, China conducted a series of diplomatic and economic measures to pressure Japan and condemned Japan which broke the unspoken agreements in putting these disputes aside. However, China did not use military forces to resolve the disputes. Rather than that, it adopted the tactic of dispatching the maritime enforcement to patrol Diaoyutai waters, breaking the status quo of Japan’s exclusive administrative power in the past. The development affected the regional security situation with very huge consequence. Why China adopted non-military means to counter Japan other than took the islands by military forces is an issue worthy of study. In order to understand the mode of action in dealing with China’s maritime sovereignty dispute, this dissertation attempts to examine the view of French strategists General Andre Beaufre’s “Action Strategy” theory and to analyze of China’s policy on Diaoyutai disputes, including China’s thorough political actions, the overall strategic directions, and the strategic actions. In addition, through the reaction of Japan, the United States and other countries in the region, this study analyzes whether or not China really achieves its goals. This dissertation hopes to study Chinese action on the Diaoyutai disputes, to understand China’s handling of the disputes, actions over sovereignty disputes and predicts the future trends of China’s sovereignty disputes with neighboring countries. This study argues that China adopts “non-military means as its core, military means as its assistances” which matches the “Total strategy action in the indirect ‘mode’” with the Strategy of Action.China tried to use “non-military means” to erode and consume Japan’s patience and would like to change Japan''s policies on disputes. Nevertheless, China may “worth the candle” because of the opposite effects and interference caused by the third parties.
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