|题名: ||中共「太極戰略」運作模式之研究 : 從中國應處區域情勢分析|
|其它题名: ||The research of CPC "Tai Chi Strategy" operation model : an analysis of mainland in China regional circumstance|
|作者: ||郭舜詠;Guo, Shuen-Yung|
|关键词: ||Tai Chi Strategy;China National Strategy;peaceful Rise;PLA;太極;戰略;中國國家戰略;和平崛起;解放軍|
|上传时间: ||2017-08-24 23:56:45 (UTC+8)|
|摘要: ||中國在想什麼？中國在做什麼？中國將如何做？中國的發展目標是什麼？這些問題，是世界歷史邁入21世紀以來的重要議題，西方國家及美國於中國周邊國家每年耗費大量的資源及人力，時刻關注著中國的崛起，只因為世界歷史的教訓告訴大家，當一霸權取代另一霸權時將發生關鍵性的一戰，而既有的霸權為持續維持國際地位，必定傾全力壓制新霸權的崛起。但偏偏中國這具東方文明古國色彩的國度在思想及制度上又迥異於西方國家，也因此，西方國家或受西方文化影響的中國周邊國家，往往用自身的想法在思考中國，也因此使世界各國對中國的崛起充滿疑慮甚至恐懼。而中國自鄧小平宣布改革開放以來，積極融入西方世界所建構之制度，而且往往將制度操作得更加靈活，積極實現「中國夢」、「和平崛起」等政策。而在對抗西方及美國的國際關係論戰中，筆者發現許多中國政要、將領及學者，甚至民間主流論壇、智庫等，多次提及中國應當以「太極」的方式應對美國及其扈從勢力，而「太極」此一華人語言中之詞彙代表了諸多的事物，但用於國際關係運作及國家戰略上之公開論述極少，故筆者企圖以戰略預警及情報研析之角度，企圖拼湊出趨近於事實的中國「太極戰略」，用以輔助解讀中國。目前大多數研究中國崛起文獻都是從西方思維出發，筆者則企圖以中國內部書籍、報導的角度切入，因為研究中國就應該用中國人的想法。本論文以「太極戰略」為題，從政治、外交、經濟、軍事的角度，提出中國在應對國際問題的戰略。藉由迥異於以往國際關係研究的角度來分析目前中國的戰略作為與手段形成。而作者從大量的資料中歸納出中國目前在應對美國及周邊情勢上，刻正採具中國特色手段，分別是：(一)中國確有「太極戰略」；(二) 中國仍處「戰略機遇期」；(三)影響中國之和平崛起之主要因素在內部；(四)應改以求獲得「共贏」思維去研究未來華人重返榮耀的世界；(五) 中美的未來對抗將肇因於「美國的衰弱」；(六) 各項客觀數據顯示中共綜合國力約至2050年後超越美國；(七) 2050年前臺灣仍是美國對中共施力之重要支點。本論文希望讓讀者理解中國式的思維即早準備中國真正成為大國的時空環境，並發展屬於臺灣自身的「太極戰略」。|
What is China thinking? What is China doing? How will China do it? What are China’s developmental objectives? These questions are important questions as the world strides into the 21st Century. Every year, together with America, Western nations spend huge amounts of resources and manpower on the nations surrounding China, continuously concerned about its rise. This is all because lessons from history have told everyone that when one hegemony replaces another, a critical confrontation will take place; and in order maintain its international position, the existing hegemonic power will pour all its strength into suppressing the rise of the new one. But China, this nation with colors of an ancient Eastern civilization, is quite different from Western nations in its ideologies and institutions. Yet, Western nations or countries surrounding China which have been influenced by Western culture always use their own way of thinking when trying to understand China. And it is for this reason that countries throughout the world have been full of suspicion and fear towards its rise. From the time that Deng Xiaoping announced the opening up of the nation, China has actively integrated itself into the systems established by the Western world. And often times, China has forced these systems to operate with increased flexibility as they ambitiously worked to bring their “China Dream”, “Peaceful Rise” and other policies into realities. However, while confronting the polemic behind the American and West’s international relationships, the author of this study discovered that many Chinese politicians, generals and scholars—and even civil mainstream forums or think tanks—often mention that China should employ a “Tai Chi” method in dealing with America and its retinue forces. In the language of the Chinese people, the word “Tai Chi” represents many things; however, there are very few public discussions on its use in respect to the conducting of international relationships and national strategies. Therefore, the author of this study attempts to piece together a factual understanding of China’s “Tai Chi Strategy” as both a strategic warning and an intelligence analysis which may be used as an aid towards better understanding China. Currently, most research articles on China’s rise begin from a Western way of thinking; however, the author of this paper attempts to use internal Chinese books and reports to set the perspective —arguing that research on China should use a Chinese way of thinking. This thesis focuses on the Tai Chi Strategy and presents China’s strategy in dealing with international issues based on perspectives of politics, foreign relations, economics and military. It takes an angle quite different from that used in past international relationship studies to analyze the current strategic behavior and tools of leverage used by China. From large qualities of data, the current situation of China’s dealings with America and peripheral areas is summarized, along with the characteristically Chinese tools that are currently being adopted. From here it is argued that (1) China indeed has a Tai Chi Strategy; (2) China is still situated in a period of strategic opportunity; (3) the main factors affecting China’s peaceful rise are internal; (4) changes should be made to a “win-win” way of thinking and research done on a future world where the Chinese returns to glory; (5) future Sino-US confrontations will be prompted by “American weakness”; (6) all objective data reveals that the overall national strength of the Chinese Communist Party will surpass the United States after 2050; (7) before 2050, Taiwan will still be an important fulcrum for the US to work against the CPC’s power. This thesis hopes to allow the reader to understand China’s way of thinking, to immediately prepare for China’s current transformation into a major power, and develop a “Tai Chi Strategy” for Taiwan.