| 摘要: | 本論文由理論與實務角度探討評估俄羅斯在後冷戰時期的航太防禦策略，並由此望能提供對於俄羅斯視航太領域為該國國安主要威脅的見解；這些威脅如何改變俄羅斯軍隊對於航太防禦的想法；俄羅斯如何因應這些威脅；以及俄羅斯如何達成其防禦目的。本論文以地緣政治取向分析並汲取大量相關文獻，文獻資料從各式官方文件、俄羅斯軍方及民間出版品、到著名西方分析專家們的相關研究著作均將之網羅。本研究的主要動機為日漸緊張的俄羅斯與西方關係，以及俄羅斯現時對於航太防禦議題討論熱衷的現象。從冷戰後時期開始，蘇聯(後來的俄羅斯)軍方與政府就一直對於美國與北約組織精準打擊系統的發展與在戰場上的運用有著密切的注意。俄羅斯領導階層一再重申此精準打擊系統將使得俄羅斯聯邦的策略性核武對於解除武裝攻擊難以招架，低估了其戰略穩定性的擔憂。此外，俄羅斯也對遠東對手兵力投射範圍日益增大及蠻橫政權未合規範的彈道飛彈形成的空中恐怖主義有所顧慮。基於以上的安全疑慮，航太防禦被視為戰略穩定的主要關鍵因素。大量資金被挹注於對稱與非對稱航太防禦能力的領域之中。然而，俄羅斯仍持續缺乏對於航太防禦領域的一貫性作法。當前俄羅斯大量軍力、經濟、及政府共同努力抵禦現存範圍廣大威脅的作法不僅耗費昂貴，且防禦方法並非源於對自身能力與可能對手之間的實際評估。俄羅斯必須重新評估並架構自身的航太防禦武力，並改進解決使致開發新系統有所難度以及進度遲緩的現有技術障礙。
This dissertation explores and evaluates both the theoretical and practical aspects of Russia’s post-Cold War approach to air and space defense, aiming to provide further insight as to what Russia perceives to be the primary threats to its national security from air and from space; how have these threats transformed the role of air and space defense in Russian military thinking; what has been Russia’s approach to countering these threats; and how well has Russia implemented this approach. The dissertation employs a geostrategic analytical approach and draws on an extensive list of sources, including official documents, publications by both Russian military and civilian experts, and previous works on the subject matter by leading Western analysts. Key motives for this study are the rising tensions between Russia and the West, and the extensive attention that the topic of air and space defense receives in contemporary Russian security discussions. Since the late Cold War period, the Soviet, and later Russian, military and political establishment has kept close watch on developments in US and NATO precision-strike systems and their employment in battle. Russia’s leadership has repeatedly voiced concerns that these systems undermine strategic stability by leaving the Russian Federation’s strategic nuclear forces vulnerable to a potential disarming strike. Of additional concern to Russia is the threat of aerial terrorism, the growing power projection capabilities of its geopolitical rivals in the Far East, and the unsanctioned launch of ballistic missiles by rogue regimes. As a result of these security concerns, air and space defense has come to be perceived as a key element of strategic stability. Large amounts of funds are being invested into both symmetric and asymmetric air and space defense capabilities. Yet, Russia continues to lack a coherent approach to air and space defense; the current approach, which calls for the defense of numerous military, economic and administrative targets across Russia against a wide-range of existing and emerging threats, is both prohibitively expensive and is not based on a realistic assessment of both Russia’s own capabilities and that of its potential adversaries. Russia must therefore reevaluate the force posture of its forces tasked with air and space defense, as well as resolve ongoing technical issues which continue to complicate and delay the development and introduction of new systems. |
