淡江大學機構典藏:Item 987654321/111547
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    題名: 杜魯門總統使用原子彈的決策過程
    其他題名: The decision-making process of President Truman's use of atomic bomb
    作者: 舒孝煌;Shu, Hsiao-Huang
    貢獻者: 淡江大學國際事務與戰略研究所博士班
    陳一新;明居正;Chen, I Hsin
    關鍵詞: 原子彈;杜魯門;決策理論;戰略轟炸;Harry S. Truman;Atomic Bomb;decision-making
    日期: 2016
    上傳時間: 2017-08-24 23:56:12 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 1941年,在羅斯福總統同意下,美國秘密進行原子彈發展計畫,被稱為曼哈坦計畫,後來由戰爭部接手,因計畫高度保密,華府知道的人極為有限,1944年,英相邱吉爾與羅斯福決定,原子彈要用在對日作戰。1945年4月12日羅斯福過世,杜魯門接任總統,4月27日戰爭部長史汀生向他簡報,他才得知原子彈計畫。
    5月7日德國投降,歐戰結束後,杜魯門隨即面臨困難的抉擇,要儘快結束對日戰爭,日本雖因美國的戰略轟炸,國內經濟及作戰能力已摧毀殆盡,然仍不願投降。美國軍事首長以太平洋戰爭經驗估算,若登陸日本,美軍將會付出高昂代價,而美軍在太平洋地區疊床架屋的作戰指揮架構及混亂的作戰計畫,不但對日作戰戰略難以統一,何時能擊敗日本並結束戰爭,仍遙遙無期。
    接著7月16日波茨坦會議前夕,原子彈試爆成功,美國陸航軍專為轟炸改造的B-29轟炸機也已部署完畢。在杜魯門同意下,戰爭部長史汀生下令轟炸日本。8月6日第一枚原子彈投擲在廣島,8月9日第二枚原子彈投擲在長崎,8月14日,日本宣布接受波茨坦宣言條件投降,二次大戰正式結束。
    本論文以艾利遜在分析古巴飛彈危機時所使用的三項決策分析模式,即理性模式、組織模式及政府政治模式,作為研究途徑,分析二戰時美國決定投擲原子彈的決策過程。
    本論文目的在探討1945年杜魯門決定對日使用原子彈的決策過程。藉由決策理論的研究架構,瞭解美國總統在戰爭期間如何進行重大軍事決策,決策時的考量因素、政府及軍事組織在決策時扮演的角色,以及總統如何考量全局後作出決策。
    本論文論點認為,杜魯門上任時的首要目標是擊敗日本,快速結束太平洋戰爭,他考量所有能夠擊敗日本的政策選項,雖然戰爭部、海軍部及其麾下的陸軍、海軍及陸軍航空軍等軍方高階將領,會提供他們認為可行的軍事選項,但國務院也會就戰後國際秩序、對抗蘇聯等角度提供意見。但杜魯門總統需綜合思考政治、外交等所有因素,最後他決定使用原子彈,以達到促使日本投降、快速結束戰爭,並降低戰爭成本及人員傷亡的目的。
    本論文認為,杜魯門使用原子彈的主要目的是軍事用途,其目的在儘快對日戰爭,恢復和平與秩序;影響決定使用原子彈決策中,擔負最重要任務的政府組織是戰爭部,而扮演最重要角色的幕僚則是史汀生。為了達成目標,杜魯門需說服其政府中的各軍政官員,並在最後做出投擲原子彈的決定。
    In 1941, President Franklin D. Roosevelt with the consent of the US secret atomic bomb development program, known as the Manhattan Project and later taken over by the War Department. Due to highly confidential plan, people know Washington D.C. is extremely rare at that time. In 1944, U.K. Prime Minister Winston Churchill and Roosevelt decided to use the atomic bomb against Japan. April 12, 1945 Roosevelt died, Harry S. Truman took over as President. After Secretary of War Stimson to brief him on April 27, Truman learned the atomic bomb project.
    May 7, Third Reich surrendered, ending the war in Europe. Truman immediately faced with a difficult choice, as soon as possible to end the war with Japan. US strategic bombing almost defeated Japan, their domestic economy and combat capability has been destroyed and exhausted, but still reluctant to surrender. US military chiefs estimate based on the experience of the Pacific war, if landed in Japan, the US military will be costly. The US military complex and overlapping in the Pacific combat command structure, and confusion of battle plans, not only to unified strategy against Japan, when it can defeated Japan and end the war , is still remain elusive.
    Then on the eve of the Potsdam Conference, July 16, atomic bomb test is successful, designed for the transformation of the bombing of USAAF B-29 has been deployed. In Truman agreed, Secretary of War Stimson ordered the bombing of Japan . The first atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima on August 6, August 9 a second atomic bomb dropped on Nagasaki. On August 14, Japan announced its acceptance of the Potsdam Declaration to surrender conditions , World War II officially ended.
    In this paper, Graham Allison’s three decision analysis model to in the analysis of the Cuban Missile Crisis is used, namely the rational model, organizational model and government political model, as approaches of research, to analysis the decision making process of United States dropped the atomic bomb at World War II.
    This paper’s objective is to investigate Truman decided to use the atomic bomb against Japan ''s decision-making process. With decision theory’s research framework, understanding how the President to conduct major military decisions during the war, the considerations, government and military organizations’ role, and the president made the decision after thinking how the overall situation.
    The paper’s point is, Truman’s primary objective is to defeat Japan when he took office, the fast end of the Pacific war. He was able consider all policy options, although the War Department, and the Department of the Navy, and the Army, Navy and Army Air Force, and other military commander will appreciate that they consider viable military option, but also the State Department on the postwar international order, against the Soviet Union and other angles to provide advice to President. But Truman integrated consideration needs all political, diplomatic, military, and finally he decided to use the atomic bomb, in order to achieve the purposes: prompt Japan''s surrender, the war ended quickly, and reduce the cost of war and casualties.
    This paper argues that the Truman''s main purpose of the atomic bomb is military use, its purpose in the war against Japan as soon as possible, to restore peace and order ; The factor to influence the decision, the most important task of the government responsible for the organization is the War Department, the most important role of the staff is Stimson . To achieve the target, Truman need to convince their governments in various military and political officials , and decide to throw the bomb at the end.
    顯示於類別:[國際事務與戰略研究所] 學位論文

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