| Abstract: | 本文主旨乃研究台灣民眾的政黨認同及施政評價如何影響其政治信任。影響民眾政治信任感的因素眾多，本文從過去學者們的研究中，歸納出最重要的兩個要素：政黨認同及施政評價。政黨認同是選民長期穩定的心理態度，而施政評價卻是屬於短期且易變動的施政感受。本文聚焦在，當兩者同時對民眾的政治信任產生影響時，會是怎樣的情況呢？另外，外在政治環境的變化會不會也對民眾的政治信任產生影響呢？
本文主要研究問題有三：首先，政黨認同及施政評價哪一個對民眾的政治信任影響力較大？其次，一般探討政黨認同和施政評價的影響時，總是將兩者獨立討論，也就是認為兩者之間並未有所關連，然而，對民眾而言確實如此嗎？第三，政黨輪替的政治氛圍改變，對民眾的政治信任感來說會有影響嗎？
筆者運用平均數檢定、線性迴歸模型，以及相關統計圖表來分析TEDS 2004、2008及2012的面訪案。研究結果發現，政黨認同及施政評價確實都對民眾的政治信任有影響。而在政府連任時期，民眾的政治信任以施政評價為主；政黨輪替時期，民眾的政治信任則以政黨認同為主。另外，施政評價對民眾政治信任的影響，在執政黨認同者及在野黨認同者間，並無顯著的影響差異。
The legitimacy of the government and political institutions are based on citizen’s political trust.In Taiwan, past two decades, several political researchers have suggested a number of factors that may affect the level of political trust, like age, education, sex, social trust, party identification, media information, government performance and so on. The author emphasize the most two important elements which are party identification and evaluation of government performance in this article. Party identification is the people’s long-term and stable psychological attachment for the party By contrast, evaluation of government performance is the short-term attitude and easy to change. Thus, the purpose of the study is to assess the influence of party identification and government performance on political trust in Taiwan.
The datasets of public opinion survey which were collected by Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) in 2004, 2008 and 2012 are used to response the research questions. There are three findings in this article. First, the party identification and evaluation of government performance simultaneously affect people’s political trust. Second, when the ruling party is re-elected, evaluation of government performance has stronger effect on people’s political trust than the other factors. On the contrary, in period of the party turnover, party identification has much more influence on people’s political trust. Third, the influence of evaluation of government performance on the people’s political trust has no significant difference between the ruling party supporters and the opposition party supporters. |
