我國生育津貼成效之研究

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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw/dspace/handle/987654321/111104

Title:	我國生育津貼成效之研究
Other Titles:	The study on evaluating the impact of maternity allowance upon total fertility rate in Taiwan
Authors:	林佳螢;Lin, Chia-Ying
Contributors:	淡江大學公共行政學系公共政策碩士班陳銘祥
Keywords:	生育津貼;總生育率;比較法;時間序列設計;maternity allowance;total fertility rate;comparative method;time-series design
Date:	2016
Issue Date:	2017-08-24 23:44:05 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	為減緩少子化之社會現狀，中央政府提供較多樣的獎勵生育措施，包括社會保險、生育補助、育嬰留職停薪、所得稅扣除額…等，然而地方政府主要以普及式「生育津貼」作為獎勵生育之政策工具，較無提供額外的獎勵措施。過去的文獻大多數著重於影響低生育率的因素研究，較少探討生育津貼對生育率之效果為何。本研究目的在於探討各縣市發放生育津貼對該地區生育率之影響，主要研究架構為比較法，研究個案為我國20個縣市(排除金門縣與連江縣)，透過不同地區或時期的比較，瞭解個案實施生育津貼前後的影響變化。研究過程中最大的問題分別是「內在效度的威脅」以及「自變數無法恣意操弄」的問題。前者必須要將可能會威脅內在效度的來源排除，故採取「單一組別時間序列設計」予以控制；後者則由於研究個案早已受到自變數的影響。研究結果發現，生育津貼至少要發到2萬元，才會出現較明顯的政策效果，對於發放金額低於2萬元的縣市來說，僅有象徵性的意義。此外，生育率變動有其鄰近效果，若要解決少子化的問題，各級政府不能單靠具經濟誘因之獎勵措施，應積極思考提供其他因素層面之服務項目，提高育齡夫妻生育誘因。 To mitigate the social status of the decreasing total fertility rate, the central Taiwan government promote child births by means of a variety of policies, including social insurance, maternity benefits, parental leave allowance, special tax deduction for preschool children, etc. Local governments, however, have provided one-time- allowance to boost the dropping birth numbers in their jurisdictional area. In past studies, the effectiveness between total fertility rate and the maternity allowance in the form of cash by local governments has less been studied. Most studies focus on the factors which affecting the low fertility rate. This study examines the correlation between total fertility rate and the amount of cash maternity allowance by comparative method. Using data from 20 jurisdictional area of Taiwan, this study investigates the impact of maternity allowance by comparing different regions as well as different periods of time. The biggest problems in the course of the study were “threats of internal validity” and ”the cases already affected by independent variables”. The results suggest that the more the cash maternity allowance provided, the more obvious the policy effect becomes only when the allowance exceeds $20,000, any allowance less than $20,000 has only symbolic meaning. Moreover, the fertility rate has neighborhood effects, in addition to the policy based on economic incentives, the government should provide other measurements to boost birth rate.
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute & Department of Public Administration] Thesis

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