| Abstract: | 2014年各國貨幣兌新台幣幾乎都升值，讓投資海外房產的民眾感覺到房價和匯率兩頭賺。近幾年政府積極平抑房價，將原本想投入國內房地產的資金導引至股市，但國內股市房市不振，使得海外投資房地產熱升溫。全球經濟重心從歐美東移至亞洲，其中以東協表現尤其亮眼，因此，本研究運用MCDM法對印尼、泰國、馬來西亞做投資因素考量與決策的探討。本研究採用的MCDM法能找出各項因素的相對關係，並計算出各項因子權重，找出最為關鍵的評選準則，並根據各項因子權重排列出投資方案的優劣順序，並做出最佳的決策，適用於需要考量各項因素的國外房地產投資評選決策，期望能透過此次研究，提升國外房地產投資的準確性。
首先，由DEMATEL分析結果可知，「土地增值稅」具最大影響力，表示如需改善其他準則，可由此準則作為改善的主要考量，而「房地產市場風險」具最大關聯性，表示此項準則為專家學者認為較重要的評選準則；其次，運用DANP法進行權重分析，七項評選準則的權重依序為房地產市場風險、資本利得、國家安全程度、資本利得稅、政治風險、租金收入、土地增值稅；最後，運用VIKOR法進行投資評估，由分析結果可知，馬來西亞的總績效值6.618為三者中最高，同時也擁有最低的平均差距，專家學者認為馬來西亞相較於印尼及泰國更值得投資，為本研究得出之最佳選擇。
In 2014, almost all currencies against NT dollar appreciated, people who invest overseas real estate may have profit in both prices and exchange rates. In recent years, the Government actively stabilize housing prices, but the domestic stock market and real estate market are now in the doldrums, making investment in overseas real estate prosperity. The global center of economic gravity from Europe and America into Asia, particularly Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). This study is based on using MCDM method to explore the considerations and decisions of selecting real estate in Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia.
MCDM method used in this study can find the relative relationship between the factors and calculate the weight of each factor, identify the key selection criteria, and arranged the investment advantages and disadvantages of the order which according to the weight of each factor, and make the best decision. This method applies to the considered foreign real estate investment selection decisions which need various factors. Through this study, we look forward to improve the accuracy of foreign real estate investment.
First of all, " Land Value Increment Tax" is the most influential factor, the result was got by the DEMATEL analysis. If you need to improve other criteria, this criterion can be a major consideration. And "Real Estate Market Risk" has maximum relevance, which means experts and scholars consider the criterion is the most important selection criteria .Secondly, do weight analysis by DANP method, the seven criteria from high to low are Real Estate Market Risk, Capital Gains, National Security, Capital Gains Tax, Political Risk, Rental Income and Land Value Increment Tax. By using VIKOR method for investment evaluation, the results of this study shows the total performance values of Malaysia 6.618 is the highest value in this three country, which also has the lowest average gap. Scholars and experts believe that Malaysia is more worthy country to invest than Indonesia or Thailand, is the best choice for this study. |
