影響風力發電要因之探討 : 全球縱橫資料分析

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Title:	影響風力發電要因之探討 : 全球縱橫資料分析
Other Titles:	The investigation of the impact factors for wind power
Authors:	陳耀華;Chen, Yao-Hua
Contributors:	淡江大學經濟學系碩士班廖惠珠
Keywords:	風力發電;縱橫資料模型;結構轉變;動態縱橫資料模型;Wind power;panel data model;Structural change;Dynamic Panel Data Model
Date:	2016
Issue Date:	2017-08-24 23:37:57 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	風力發電是當今最受矚目的再生能源之一，而影響風力發電的因素也成為各國政府關注的焦點，本研究利用全球各國之能源發電量及相關變數來探討影響風力發電產出的要因，盼分析結果可資我國風力發電借鏡，而促進其發展。本研究採用IEA資料庫140國在1971年至2013年間的風力發電量、其他能源發電量以及相對應之社經年資料進行分析。參照文獻及第三章之基本資料分析後，本研究選用三種不同型態的縱橫資料模型，探討影響全球風力發電發展之因素。第一部分，使用靜態縱橫資料模型進行分析，發現煤炭、石油與天然氣之發電量與風力發電量皆呈現正向關係。第二部分，本研究多考量了結構轉變因素，設2008年為結構轉變起始年，發現該年之後，各國之煤炭與石油之發電量與風力發電量成負向關係。此一結果，可能隱含各國之風力發電有慢慢替代燃煤與燃油發電之趨勢。有趣的是，天然氣與風力發電仍為正向關係，推測此一現象除導因於天然氣相對乾淨之特性外，其快速升降載功能可彌補風力間歇性發電缺失，亦是兩者具互補趨勢之要因。最後，第三部分使用動態縱橫資料模型，發現前期風力發電量為影響當期風力發電量的重要因素且具有決定性的影響，而社經變數，如GDP、人口、再生能源政策變數、各國能源自給率，以及每人CO2排放量等變數也多有顯著性之影響。透過本研究可得知天然氣為風力發電及其他再生能源的備用能源首選，以及前期風力發電量對當期風力發電量具有強烈的影響，意味透過前期使用風力發電的經驗加以改善未來的風力發電效率與發電量。 The impact factors on the wind power has become the focus of attention for all governments. since wind power is one of the most popular renewable energy sources nowadays. This study investigates the impact factors for wind power output with using electricity output data and related variables around the world. Hope this study can provide some suggestions, which may promote wind power development in Taiwan. In this study, we analyze annual data of wind power output, other electricity output and corresponding socioeconomic variables of 140 countries in IEA database ranging from 1971 to 2013. Refer to the literature review and basic data analysis in chapter 3, we apply three different form of panel data models and discuss factors that influence the development of the global wind power. First, the analysis of static panel data model is obtained that the electricity output of coal, oil and natural gas show a positive relationship with wind power output. The second part of this study considers factors of structural change and sets the start of structural change from 2008. The analysis show that the electricity output of coal and oil shows a negative relationship with wind power output. This result may imply a trend that wind power is slowly substituted for coal and fuel. Interestingly, natural gas and wind power keeps a positive relationship, which might suggest that the clean characteristics of natural gas and the quickly gas power generation up and down load adjustment for compensating the shortage of wind power intermittence. Finally, the third part of study is dynamic panel data model. The results show that previous wind power output is an important and decisive factor affecting current wind power output. In addition, socioeconomic variables, such as GDP, population, renewable energy policy variables, and energy self-sufficiency in global countries, as well as CO2 emissions per capita have more significant impact to wind power output. This research results indicate that natural gas is the first choice of alternative energy sources to wind power and other renewable energy. Besides, previous wind power output has a strong influence on the current wind power output, which implies that we can improve the efficiency and electricity output of wind power in future through previous experience of wind power.
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