Essays on an agent-based prediction market, behavior of illegal downloading of university students and music industry business model in the post digital era

淡江大學機構典藏 > 商管學院 > 產業經濟學系暨研究所 > 學位論文 > Item 987654321/110739

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題名:	Essays on an agent-based prediction market, behavior of illegal downloading of university students and music industry business model in the post digital era
其他題名:	代理人基預測市場、大學生非法下載行為及後數位時代音樂產業營運模式論文集
作者:	白紀齡;Pai, Chi-Ling
貢獻者:	淡江大學產業經濟學系博士班池秉聰
關鍵詞:	預測市場;代理人基模型;隔離模型;信念分配;執法強度;營運模式;Prediction Market;Agent-based modeling;Segregation model;Belief Distribution;Law enforcement strength;Business Model
日期:	2016
上傳時間:	2017-08-24 23:34:45 (UTC+8)
摘要:	本論文集分為三篇研究，第一篇探討預測市場的預測能力，第二篇探討大學生非法下載行為，第三篇則接續深入探究後數位時代音樂產業營運模式。第一篇：本文提出一個從底層個人信念出發的代理人基預測市場模型，並檢驗其市場效率。給定市場機制下，以隔離模型刻畫人際網路與形成個人的信念。本文推論2008與2012年總統選舉預測市場背後可能的信念分配。透過預測偏誤與模型參數的關係，以探測預測市場在不同信念分配下的預測能力。依交易所結果校準代理人基模型。發現信念分配在 2008 年較兩極化，2012年則相對信念分配較居中，其中衍生的噪音亦較多，說明其預測偏誤的機率增高。第二篇：以大學生為研究對象，探討其對流行音樂之消費態度，以及對於非法下載流行音樂是否受執法強度的改變而影響其行為。採用問卷方法進行第一階段之調查分析，並據此樣本資料後設處理所產生的資訊，建構出代理人之行為模式，進入第二階段之代理人基建模與模擬。本文將執法強度拆解為：非法下載行為被查獲的機率與違法行為被查獲後處以的罰責。結果發現，當整體執法強度提高，無論是受訪者回應；亦或模型中之代理人，對非法下載之意願與行為均降低，且對非法下載被查獲的機率更為敏感。第三篇：隨著資訊通訊科技全球化發展，世人見識到諸多的創造性破壞的經濟活動，特別是商品以內容型態呈現且載具可數位化的產業。這意味著消費者無償取得的能耐，其中最引發關注的莫過於唱片工業所受到的衝擊。本文試圖勾勒出一個符合唱片工業現況且能夠順應線上音樂發展的營運模式，以維繫音樂產業價值鏈上的主要參與者之間的夥伴關係、協同商務關係與彼此核心能力互補、銜接及最後的利潤共享，啟動營運模式並跨越組織與產業的界線，提供依循發展之道。 Essay 1: This study adopted an agent-based modeling approach to investigate results of the world’s leading Chinese prediction market, xFuture; in particular, Taiwan’s 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. Real transaction results of xFuture were used as the base model. We employed double auction mechanism and Schelling’s segregation model, and attempted to reconstruct the networking structures of the prediction market in 2008 and 2012. Purpose of this study is to discuss whether networking structures have any deterministic influence on how individual and hence joint belief distribution of participants could be formed. It is found that certain belief distribution properties, including shape, spread and location, could be critical factors for market efficiency/inefficiency. Our analysis suggested that in 2012 xFuture participants’ belief distributions for the main candidates were associated with high kurtosis, small variance and approximate means. In other words, it might have a higher probability to deviate from the true outcome. Essay 2: This study investigated the university students’ consumption attitude towards pop music and their behavior of illegal downloading of pop music behind various types of law enforcement degrees. In the first stage, we designed and conducted a questionnaire survey. Based on these samples, we developed a behavioral model that is customizable for each individual observation. Afterwards we came to the second stage and developed an agent-based model to perform the simulation. This study decomposed the types of law enforcement degrees into the combination of the probability of getting caught due to illegal downloading behavior and the financial penalty after getting caught. The results showed that, when strength of law enforcement is increased, the agents’ willingness of illegal downloading in the model is decreased. This empirical study found that the deterrent effects both in the real world and the simulated model were more sensitive to the probability of getting caught primarily due to illegal downloading behavior. Essay 3: Following the globalization of information and communications technology, the world witnessed economic activity based in creative destruction. This was especially evident in the realm of digital content as it implied consumers'' ability to duplicate and upgrade. This phenomenon was most representative in the impact it had on Taiwan’s music industry. This study attempts to find a line within the industry that is able to adapt to the future by business model change. To sustain the music industry value chain partnerships between key players. Also, the collaborative relationships with each other''s core business ability to complement each others, the convergence and the final profit sharing, so that the line is able to adapt to the future development.
顯示於類別:	[產業經濟學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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