|题名: ||Essays on an agent-based prediction market, behavior of illegal downloading of university students and music industry business model in the post digital era|
|作者: ||白紀齡;Pai, Chi-Ling|
|关键词: ||預測市場;代理人基模型;隔離模型;信念分配;執法強度;營運模式;Prediction Market;Agent-based modeling;Segregation model;Belief Distribution;Law enforcement strength;Business Model|
|上传时间: ||2017-08-24 23:34:45 (UTC+8)|
第一篇：本文提出一個從底層個人信念出發的代理人基預測市場模型，並檢驗其市場效率。給定市場機制下，以隔離模型刻畫人際網路與形成個人的信念。本文推論2008與2012年總統選舉預測市場背後可能的信念分配。透過預測偏誤與模型參數的關係，以探測預測市場在不同信念分配下的預測能力。依交易所結果校準代理人基模型。發現信念分配在 2008 年較兩極化，2012年則相對信念分配較居中，其中衍生的噪音亦較多，說明其預測偏誤的機率增高。
Essay 1: This study adopted an agent-based modeling approach to investigate results of the world’s leading Chinese prediction market, xFuture; in particular, Taiwan’s 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. Real transaction results of xFuture were used as the base model. We employed double auction mechanism and Schelling’s segregation model, and attempted to reconstruct the networking structures of the prediction market in 2008 and 2012. Purpose of this study is to discuss whether networking structures have any deterministic influence on how individual and hence joint belief distribution of participants could be formed. It is found that certain belief distribution properties, including shape, spread and location, could be critical factors for market efficiency/inefficiency. Our analysis suggested that in 2012 xFuture participants’ belief distributions for the main candidates were associated with high kurtosis, small variance and approximate means. In other words, it might have a higher probability to deviate from the true outcome.
Essay 2: This study investigated the university students’ consumption attitude towards pop music and their behavior of illegal downloading of pop music behind various types of law enforcement degrees. In the first stage, we designed and conducted a questionnaire survey. Based on these samples, we developed a behavioral model that is customizable for each individual observation. Afterwards we came to the second stage and developed an agent-based model to perform the simulation. This study decomposed the types of law enforcement degrees into the combination of the probability of getting caught due to illegal downloading behavior and the financial penalty after getting caught. The results showed that, when strength of law enforcement is increased, the agents’ willingness of illegal downloading in the model is decreased. This empirical study found that the deterrent effects both in the real world and the simulated model were more sensitive to the probability of getting caught primarily due to illegal downloading behavior.
Essay 3: Following the globalization of information and communications technology, the world witnessed economic activity based in creative destruction. This was especially evident in the realm of digital content as it implied consumers'' ability to duplicate and upgrade. This phenomenon was most representative in the impact it had on Taiwan’s music industry. This study attempts to find a line within the industry that is able to adapt to the future by business model change. To sustain the music industry value chain partnerships between key players. Also, the collaborative relationships with each other''s core business ability to complement each others, the convergence and the final profit sharing, so that the line is able to adapt to the future development.
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