分區探討中古屋與預售屋受總體經濟影響 : 平滑移轉模型應用 = The study of impact of macroeconomics for zoning on exist and pre-sales housing price-smooth transition model

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题名:	分區探討中古屋與預售屋受總體經濟影響 : 平滑移轉模型應用 = The study of impact of macroeconomics for zoning on exist and pre-sales housing price-smooth transition model
其它题名:	The study of impact of macroeconomics for zoning on exist and pre-sales housing price-smooth transition model
作者:	廖芳敏;Liao, Fang-Min
贡献者:	淡江大學財務金融學系碩士班聶建中;陳達新
关键词:	總體經濟因數;中古屋與預售屋;平滑移轉模型;Macroeconomic factors;Existing and Pre-sales House;Smooth Transition Model
日期:	2016
上传时间:	2017-08-24 23:33:42 (UTC+8)
摘要:	本文主要研究總體經濟變數對於房地產價格的影響狀況，分別輔以總體經濟變數中的經濟成長率、消費者物價指數、貨幣供給成長率，並且採用非線性平滑移轉模型，以五大行庫購屋貸款利率作為門檻變數，針對2006年第一季到2015年第四季台灣北區以及南區的中古屋以及預售屋房價指數的影響做一探討。實證結果顯示，北區與南區的中古屋以及預售屋在門檻值區間時，對區域內房價指數都有顯著的影響關係，在北區中是貨幣供給成長率有影響，而在南區則是消費者物價指數有影響，反映出經濟成長率波動度過高，加上政府貨幣政策的施行以及財政政策的加壓，對於各區域內的房價指數不論是中古屋或預售屋房價指數均會受到顯著的影響。因此，政府應採取適當的貨幣政策以及完善的財政政策，並且控制經濟成長率的震盪區間不過於太大，促使房地產市場運作正常。 This paper studies the macroeconomic factors affect the price of real estate conditions are supplemented by macroeconomic factors in the economic growth rate, consumer price index, money supply growth rate, and the smooth transfer of the nonlinear model to the five banks that undertook the mortgage rates as a threshold, focus on the first quarter of 2006 to the fourth quarter of 2015, north and south existing and pre-sales house of Taiwan and the impact of new housing price index to study. The empirical results show that existing and pre-sales house North and South as well as new homes during the five banks that undertook the mortgage rates threshold value for the price index in the region have a significant impact on the relationship, in the North as well as money supply growth rate influential economic growth rate, while in the southern region is affecting the consumer price index, reflecting the economic growth rate fluctuation is too high, coupled with the pressure of government monetary policy and fiscal policy purposes, for the price in each area whether existing or pre-sales house index will be subject to a significant impact. Therefore, the government should take appropriate monetary policy and sound fiscal policy and economic growth rate shock interval control is not too much to promote the real estate market is working properly.
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