本研究的主要目的在於了解油價變動率，對台灣紡織類股獲利之影響。而變數採用油價變動率、通貨膨脹率、失業率與匯率，以油價變動率作為門檻變數，研究油價變動率對紡織產業獲利是否造成非線性影響。採用Granger and Teräsvirta (1993) and Teräsvirta (1994) 提出之平滑移轉迴歸模型，研究結果發現：當油價變動率大於門檻值時，油價變動率、失業率與匯率對紡織產業獲利呈現正向影響，而通貨膨脹率則呈現負向影響；當油價變動率小於門檻值時，油價變動率與匯率對紡織產業獲利呈現正向影響，但其影響程度有所下降，通貨膨脹率則仍呈現負向影響，而失業率之影響則轉為負向影響。 The main purpose of this study is to understand the changes in macroeconomic variables on the impact of Taiwan''s textile industry profitability. Global variables use inflation rates, unemployment rate, and exchange rates to use Oil Change Rate as the threshold variable to study changes in the macroeconomic variables how to effect profitability of the textile industry, whether caused by non-linear effects. Using Granger and Teräsvirta (1993) and Teräsvirta (1994) proposed smooth transition regression model, results showed: when Oil Change Rate is greater than the threshold value, the Oil Change Rate, the unemployment rate, and exchange rate for textile industry showed positive effects on profitability, while inflation has negative effects; when Oil Change Rate is less than the threshold value, the Oil Change Rate, exchange rate for textile industry showed positive effects on profitability, but its influence has declined, the impact of the unemployment rate to negative to influence, while inflation is still showing a negative effect.
