中國崛起對兩岸關係與亞太區域安全的情節分析

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Title:	中國崛起對兩岸關係與亞太區域安全的情節分析
Authors:	陳建甫;Chen, Chien-Fu
Keywords:	新太平洋世紀;中國經濟崛起;新霸權;情節分析;未來三角;New Pacific Century;Rise of China’s Economy;New Hegemony;Scenario Analysis;Future Triangle
Date:	2016-01-01
Issue Date:	2017-08-04 02:10:12 (UTC+8)
Publisher:	淡江大學國際研究學院
Abstract:	不論中國的經濟崛起是一種「威脅」或是一種「機會」，本研究嘗試跳出歷史的框架，去思考如何創建新的兩岸關係，以及探討中國經濟崛起對亞太區域安全的影響。本研究運用未來三角法，先確認可能影響兩岸關係的六種可見的未來，包括:關係密切、文化疏離、經濟互利互賴、政治軍事對立、維持現況、以及想像的共同體，並檢視六個可見的未來裡，促進未來的推力與結構性的阻力。並運用情節分析法，歸納中國崛起後對亞太區域安全的四種情節，包括：模糊且平衡關係；新霸權與跨國政治與經濟菁英集團；深度分裂危機；以及邁向新太平洋世紀。最後建議兩岸與亞太各國領袖，需要轉化政府官僚體制與思維、建構多元文化認同與亞洲價值、強化跨區域結盟與在地社群對話、以及設定可行的願景以改變未來，才有機會邁向新太平洋世紀。 Regardless of China's economy rising is a ＂threat＂ or an ＂opportunity＂, this study attempted to think out of the historical framework to create a new model of cross-strait relations and to examine the impact of China’s economy rising on the Asia-Pacific regional security. This study employed the future triangle to identify the six plausible futures of cross-strait relations, including closely, cultural alienation, mutually beneficial economic interdependence, political and military confrontation, maintaining the current status quo and approaching the imagined communities. Those drivers and structural resistances also were illustrated in each plausible future. Scenarios analysis was employed to examine how the influence of China economy’s rising to the Asia-Pacific regional security. Four scenarios were illustrated, including the desirable future status of the vague but balanced relations, emerging the new hegemony and the multinational political and economic elite alliances, the separatist crisis, and to transcend towards the new Pacific century. This study finally proposed four strategies to approach the new Pacific century, including to conversion of the governmental bureaucracy and planning think patterns, to respect the multicultural identity and the construction of Asian values, to design the multiple and deeper level dialogue within local NGOs and building the cross-regional alliance, as well as setting the plausible vision and strategy to change the future.
Relation:	淡江國際與區域研究 4(2)，頁111-157
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of China Studies] Journal Article

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