淡江大學機構典藏:Item 987654321/110311
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    题名: Evaluations of Extended-Range tropical Cyclone Forecasts in the Western North Pacific by using the Ensemble Reforecasts: Preliminary Results
    作者: Tsai, Hsiao-Chung;Chen, Pang-Cheng;Elsberry, Russell L.
    日期: 2017-04-24
    上传时间: 2017-05-18 02:10:50 (UTC+8)
    摘要: The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictability of the extended-range forecasts of tropical cyclone
    (TC) in the western North Pacific using reforecasts from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
    Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) during 1996-2015, and from the Climate Forecast System (CFS) during
    1999-2010. Tsai and Elsberry have demonstrated that an opportunity exists to support hydrological operations by
    using the extended-range TC formation and track forecasts in the western North Pacific from the ECMWF 32-day
    ensemble. To demonstrate this potential for the decision-making processes regarding water resource management
    and hydrological operation in Taiwan reservoir watershed areas, special attention is given to the skill of the NCEP
    GEFS and CFS models in predicting the TCs affecting the Taiwan area.
    The first objective of this study is to analyze the skill of NCEP GEFS and CFS TC forecasts and quantify
    the forecast uncertainties via verifications of categorical binary forecasts and probabilistic forecasts. The second
    objective is to investigate the relationships among the large-scale environmental factors [e.g., El Niño Southern
    Oscillation (ENSO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), etc.] and the model forecast errors by using the reforecasts.
    Preliminary results are indicating that the skill of the TC activity forecasts based on the raw forecasts can be
    further improved if the model biases are minimized by utilizing these reforecasts.
    關聯: EGU General Assembly 2017
    显示于类别:[水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所] 會議論文

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