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    題名: SEVEN-DAY INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES
    作者: Elsberry, Russell;Tsai, Hsiao-Chung
    關鍵詞: Tropical cyclone intensity forecas;tstropical cyclone intensity spread predictions
    日期: 2017-03-06
    上傳時間: 2017-03-15 02:11:04 (UTC+8)
    摘要: Our weighted-analog intensity (WANI) technique for predicting western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and with intensity spread guidance has been extended from five days to seven days. A perfect-prog approach that utilizes the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-tracks is adopted and the 10 best historical track analogs are selected from the 1945–2009 JTWC best-track file. A development sample from the 2000–2009 seasons is used to develop an intensity bias correction and an intensity spread calibration. Tests with an independent sample from the 2010–2014 seasons demonstrate that the intensity mean absolute errors and the correlation coefficients of the WANI forecast intensities with the verifying intensities essentially remain constant in the five-day to seven-day forecast interval. After calibration of the raw intensity spreads among the 10 historical analogs each 12 h, the uncertainty estimates about the WANI intensity forecasts also do not increase during the five-day to seven-day forecast intervals. The conclusion is that the seven-day WANI will provide intensity and intensity spread predictions of western North Pacific tropical cyclones with a similar performance as our five-day WANI technique. Examples of the performance for this seven-day WANI for westward-moving and northwestward-moving cyclones that make landfall, or for recurving storms that begin decay after rrecurvature over the ocean, demonstrate the value of constraining the intensities at the end of the WANI forecast. Less satisfactory WANI forecasts occur for rapid intensification, rapid decay, and for cyclones with extended periods of non-intensification.
    關聯: 2017 PACOM JTCFP ASSEMBLY
    顯示於類別:[水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所] 會議論文

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