English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  Items with full text/Total items : 51510/86705 (59%)
Visitors : 8271476      Online Users : 72
RC Version 7.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library & TKU Library IR team.
Scope Tips:
  • please add "double quotation mark" for query phrases to get precise results
  • please goto advance search for comprehansive author search
  • Adv. Search
    HomeLoginUploadHelpAboutAdminister Goto mobile version
    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/109959


    Title: SEVEN-DAY INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES
    Authors: Elsberry, Russell;Tsai, Hsiao-Chung
    Keywords: Tropical cyclone intensity forecas;tstropical cyclone intensity spread predictions
    Date: 2017-03-06
    Issue Date: 2017-03-15 02:11:04 (UTC+8)
    Abstract: Our weighted-analog intensity (WANI) technique for predicting western North Pacific tropical cyclone intensity and with intensity spread guidance has been extended from five days to seven days. A perfect-prog approach that utilizes the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-tracks is adopted and the 10 best historical track analogs are selected from the 1945–2009 JTWC best-track file. A development sample from the 2000–2009 seasons is used to develop an intensity bias correction and an intensity spread calibration. Tests with an independent sample from the 2010–2014 seasons demonstrate that the intensity mean absolute errors and the correlation coefficients of the WANI forecast intensities with the verifying intensities essentially remain constant in the five-day to seven-day forecast interval. After calibration of the raw intensity spreads among the 10 historical analogs each 12 h, the uncertainty estimates about the WANI intensity forecasts also do not increase during the five-day to seven-day forecast intervals. The conclusion is that the seven-day WANI will provide intensity and intensity spread predictions of western North Pacific tropical cyclones with a similar performance as our five-day WANI technique. Examples of the performance for this seven-day WANI for westward-moving and northwestward-moving cyclones that make landfall, or for recurving storms that begin decay after rrecurvature over the ocean, demonstrate the value of constraining the intensities at the end of the WANI forecast. Less satisfactory WANI forecasts occur for rapid intensification, rapid decay, and for cyclones with extended periods of non-intensification.
    Relation: 2017 PACOM JTCFP ASSEMBLY
    Appears in Collections:[水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所] 會議論文

    Files in This Item:

    File Description SizeFormat
    SEVEN-DAY INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES_議程.pdf374KbAdobe PDF535View/Open

    All items in 機構典藏 are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved.


    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library & TKU Library IR teams. Copyright ©   - Feedback