Seven-Day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

doi:10.1175/WAF-D-16-0165.1

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题名:	Seven-Day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
作者:	Hsiao-Chung Tsai;Russell. L. Elsberry
关键词:	Forecasting techniques
日期:	2017-01-04
上传时间:	2017-02-21 02:11:13 (UTC+8)
出版者:	American Meteorological Society
摘要:	The extension of the Weighted Analog Intensity Atlantic (WAIA) prediction technique for Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) from 5 to 7 days revealed a need for two modifications. The first modification for the 7-day WAIA was to randomly select 70% of the TCs in the entire 2000–15 sample to be the training set and use the remaining 30% as the independent set. The second modification was to ensure that appropriate analogs were selected for ending storm situations such as landfall, postrecurvature, and nondevelopment or delayed intensification within the 7-day forecast interval. By simply constraining the analog selection such that the intensity at the last matching point with the target TC track does not exceed 50 kt (where 1 kt = 0.51 m s−1), an increasing overforecast bias with forecast interval was almost eliminated in both the training set and the independent set. With these two analog selection modifications, the mean absolute errors, and the correlation coefficients of the 7-day WAIA intensities with the verifying intensities, are essentially constant from 5 to 7 days, which establishes this WAIA as a viable technique for 7-day intensity forecasts of Atlantic TCs.
關聯:	Weather and Forecasting 32(1), p.141-147
DOI:	10.1175/WAF-D-16-0165.1
显示于类别:	[水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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