English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  全文筆數/總筆數 : 51275/86342 (59%)
造訪人次 : 8146372      線上人數 : 98
RC Version 7.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library & TKU Library IR team.
搜尋範圍 查詢小技巧:
  • 您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號",以獲取較精準的檢索結果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜尋,建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位,可獲得較完整資料
  • 進階搜尋
    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/109479


    題名: Seven-Day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions for Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
    作者: Hsiao-Chung Tsai;Russell. L. Elsberry
    關鍵詞: Forecasting techniques
    日期: 2017-01-04
    上傳時間: 2017-02-21 02:11:13 (UTC+8)
    出版者: American Meteorological Society
    摘要: The extension of the Weighted Analog Intensity Atlantic (WAIA) prediction technique for Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) from 5 to 7 days revealed a need for two modifications. The first modification for the 7-day WAIA was to randomly select 70% of the TCs in the entire 2000–15 sample to be the training set and use the remaining 30% as the independent set. The second modification was to ensure that appropriate analogs were selected for ending storm situations such as landfall, postrecurvature, and nondevelopment or delayed intensification within the 7-day forecast interval. By simply constraining the analog selection such that the intensity at the last matching point with the target TC track does not exceed 50 kt (where 1 kt = 0.51 m s−1), an increasing overforecast bias with forecast interval was almost eliminated in both the training set and the independent set. With these two analog selection modifications, the mean absolute errors, and the correlation coefficients of the 7-day WAIA intensities with the verifying intensities, are essentially constant from 5 to 7 days, which establishes this WAIA as a viable technique for 7-day intensity forecasts of Atlantic TCs.
    關聯: Weather and Forecasting 32(1), p.141-147
    DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-16-0165.1
    顯示於類別:[水資源及環境工程學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

    文件中的檔案:

    檔案 描述 大小格式瀏覽次數
    index.html0KbHTML77檢視/開啟

    在機構典藏中所有的資料項目都受到原著作權保護.

    TAIR相關文章

    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library & TKU Library IR teams. Copyright ©   - 回饋