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    Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/109263


    Title: The European Union Institute for Security Studies Arab Futures Report: A Review
    Authors: Dolan, Timothy E.
    Date: 2016-09
    Issue Date: 2017-01-16 13:42:05 (UTC+8)
    Publisher: 淡江大學未來學研究所
    Abstract: This review focuses on the European Union’s Institute for Security Studies’ Report No. 22 on Arab Futures:
    Three Scenarios was issued in February of 2015. The report is a summary report of a larger 200-page book that
    was published after it was issued. The book is not part of this review, however, given that it is presumed to be
    an elaboration of the report and, conversely, the report contains the essential points of the book, there may not
    be a significant discrepancy between the two over the points raised in this review. The report’s institutional
    affiliation would lead one to expect a well-researched empirically based foundation upon which an informed
    projection of the current dynamics might be plotted. What is offered instead falls well short. It is useful as a
    study in the pitfalls of scenario development from shaky premises and limited implementation of forecasting
    tools developed over the past few years.
    Relation: Journal of Futures Studies 21(1), pp.85-92
    DOI: 10.6531/JFS.2016.21(1).R85
    Appears in Collections:[未來研究叢刊] 第21卷第1期

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