English  |  正體中文  |  简体中文  |  全文筆數/總筆數 : 58791/92483 (64%)
造訪人次 : 626024      線上人數 : 34
RC Version 7.0 © Powered By DSPACE, MIT. Enhanced by NTU Library & TKU Library IR team.
搜尋範圍 查詢小技巧:
  • 您可在西文檢索詞彙前後加上"雙引號",以獲取較精準的檢索結果
  • 若欲以作者姓名搜尋,建議至進階搜尋限定作者欄位,可獲得較完整資料
  • 進階搜尋
    請使用永久網址來引用或連結此文件: http://tkuir.lib.tku.edu.tw:8080/dspace/handle/987654321/108542

    題名: An agent-based prediction market: a case study of xFuture in Taiwan
    作者: Chie, Bin-Tzong;Pai, Chi-Ling
    關鍵詞: prediction markets;ABM;agent-based modelling;segregation model;double auction;social networks;belief distribution;agent-based systems;multi-agent systems;MAS;case study;xFuture;Taiwan;networking structures;market efficiency;market inefficiency;kurtosis;small variance;approximate means
    日期: 2016
    上傳時間: 2016-11-26 02:11:25 (UTC+8)
    出版者: Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.
    摘要: This study adopted an agent-based modelling approach to investigate results of the world's leading Chinese prediction market, xFuture; in particular, Taiwan's 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. Real transaction results of xFuture were used as the base model. We employed double auction mechanism and Schelling's segregation model, and attempted to reconstruct the networking structures of the prediction market in 2008 and 2012. Purpose of this study is to discuss whether networking structures have any deterministic influence on how individual and hence joint belief distribution of participants could be formed. It is found that certain belief distribution properties, including shape, spread and location, could be critical factors for market efficiency/inefficiency. Our analysis suggested that in 2012 xFuture participants' belief distributions for the main candidates were associated with high kurtosis, small variance and approximate means. In other words, it might have a higher probability to deviate from the true outcome.
    關聯: International Journal of Computational Economics and Econometrics 6(4), p.390-412
    DOI: 10.1504/IJCEE.2016.079533
    顯示於類別:[產業經濟學系暨研究所] 期刊論文


    檔案 描述 大小格式瀏覽次數



    DSpace Software Copyright © 2002-2004  MIT &  Hewlett-Packard  /   Enhanced by   NTU Library & TKU Library IR teams. Copyright ©   - 回饋