陸俄戰略合作對美俄陸三邊關係的影響： 2014 年烏克蘭事件的催化作用

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Title:	陸俄戰略合作對美俄陸三邊關係的影響： 2014 年烏克蘭事件的催化作用
Other Titles:	Impact of Sino-Russian Strategic Cooperation on the Trilateral China-US-Russian Relations: the Catalysis of 2014 Ukraine Event
Authors:	郭建中;黃惠華
Keywords:	守勢現實主義;俄羅斯;中國大陸;中俄戰略合作;中美俄三邊關係;Defensive realism;Russia;China;Sino-Russian strategic cooperation;the trilateral China-US-Russia relations
Date:	2014
Issue Date:	2016-10-05 02:10:25 (UTC+8)
Abstract:	本文試以守勢現實主義（Defensive Realism）理論學派觀點，解構2014 年陸俄戰略合作的行為與其意涵。2014 年 1 月，烏克蘭爆發內部危機，俄羅斯成功兼併克里米亞半島，歐美國家指控俄羅斯試圖分裂烏克蘭，並紛紛對其採取制裁措施，以限制俄羅斯對鄰國擴張領土的野心。面對此一困境，俄羅斯總統普欽（Vladimir Putin）訪問中國大陸，以舒緩被制裁的壓力。由於美國無法有效說服所有歐盟國家共同參與制裁俄羅斯，反而讓普欽有機會在烏克蘭衝突的策略上保持影響力；而同時位在亞洲的中國大陸，因為反抗或試圖突破美國的「亞洲再平衡」政策，其在領土及海域爭端上對美採取較強硬的態度。此次陸俄升級新階段全面戰略協作夥伴關係，對陸俄而言，不僅可以強化雙邊友好關係，還可以平衡陸俄與美國的三邊緊張關係，此是當前兩國較佳戰略。 This paper tries to apply defensive realism theory toe analyze the newdevelopment of 2014 Sino-Russian strategic cooperation and itsimplications on the trilateral tension between China, Russia and the UnitedStates. January of 2014, the outbreak of internal crisis in Ukraine providedRussia an opportunity to merge Crimea peninsula. The United States andEurope accused Russia of trying to split Ukraine and starting to adoptsanction strategies to constrain Russia’s ambition for territorial expansion inits neighboring countries. Confronting such dilemma, Russian PresidentVladimir Putin visit to China, seeking for opportunity to reinforcingbilateral relations, in order to relieve the pressure from sanctions. Due to theUnited States cannot effectively convince all EU countries to participate insanctions against Russia, which letting Putin have the room to maneuverpolicy influences on the conflict issue of Ukraine. While at the same time,China, who was trying to resist or attempt to break the United States’ Policyof “Asia Rebalancing”, has adopt a rather tougher attitude toward the United States in the territorial waters dispute. China and Russia in 2014 upgradedthe China-Russia strategic cooperative partnership to a new stage, not onlystrengthen bilateral friendly relations, but also can balance the trilateraltension between China, Russia on the one side, and the United States on theanother side, this is the current bilateral preferred strategy for China andRussia.
Relation:	戰略與評估 5(3)，頁47-68
Appears in Collections:	[Graduate Institute of China Studies] Journal Article

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