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    題名: 陸俄戰略合作對美俄陸三邊關係的影響: 2014 年烏克蘭事件的催化作用
    其他題名: Impact of Sino-Russian Strategic Cooperation on the Trilateral China-US-Russian Relations: the Catalysis of 2014 Ukraine Event
    作者: 郭建中;黃惠華
    關鍵詞: 守勢現實主義;俄羅斯;中國大陸;中俄戰略合作;中美俄三邊關係;Defensive realism;Russia;China;Sino-Russian strategic cooperation;the trilateral China-US-Russia relations
    日期: 2014秋季號
    上傳時間: 2016-10-05 02:10:25 (UTC+8)
    摘要: 本文試以守勢現實主義(Defensive Realism)理論學派觀點,解構
    2014 年陸俄戰略合作的行為與其意涵。2014 年 1 月,烏克蘭爆發內部
    危機,俄羅斯成功兼併克里米亞半島,歐美國家指控俄羅斯試圖分裂烏
    克蘭,並紛紛對其採取制裁措施,以限制俄羅斯對鄰國擴張領土的野
    心。面對此一困境,俄羅斯總統普欽(Vladimir Putin)訪問中國大陸,
    以舒緩被制裁的壓力。由於美國無法有效說服所有歐盟國家共同參與制
    裁俄羅斯,反而讓普欽有機會在烏克蘭衝突的策略上保持影響力;而同
    時位在亞洲的中國大陸,因為反抗或試圖突破美國的「亞洲再平衡」政
    策,其在領土及海域爭端上對美採取較強硬的態度。此次陸俄升級新階
    段全面戰略協作夥伴關係,對陸俄而言,不僅可以強化雙邊友好關係,
    還可以平衡陸俄與美國的三邊緊張關係,此是當前兩國較佳戰略。
    This paper tries to apply defensive realism theory toe analyze the new
    development of 2014 Sino-Russian strategic cooperation and its
    implications on the trilateral tension between China, Russia and the United
    States. January of 2014, the outbreak of internal crisis in Ukraine provided
    Russia an opportunity to merge Crimea peninsula. The United States and
    Europe accused Russia of trying to split Ukraine and starting to adopt
    sanction strategies to constrain Russia’s ambition for territorial expansion in
    its neighboring countries. Confronting such dilemma, Russian President
    Vladimir Putin visit to China, seeking for opportunity to reinforcing
    bilateral relations, in order to relieve the pressure from sanctions. Due to the
    United States cannot effectively convince all EU countries to participate in
    sanctions against Russia, which letting Putin have the room to maneuver
    policy influences on the conflict issue of Ukraine. While at the same time,
    China, who was trying to resist or attempt to break the United States’ Policy
    of “Asia Rebalancing”, has adopt a rather tougher attitude toward the United States in the territorial waters dispute. China and Russia in 2014 upgraded
    the China-Russia strategic cooperative partnership to a new stage, not only
    strengthen bilateral friendly relations, but also can balance the trilateral
    tension between China, Russia on the one side, and the United States on the
    another side, this is the current bilateral preferred strategy for China and
    Russia.
    關聯: 戰略與評估 5(3),頁47-68
    顯示於類別:[中國大陸研究所] 期刊論文

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