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    題名: A Time-Series Analysis of Alcohol Tax Policy in Relation to Mortality from Alcohol Attributed Causes in Taiwan
    作者: Lin, Chih-Ming;Liao, Chen-Mao;Li, Chung-Yi
    關鍵詞: Alcohol-attributed disease;Mortality;Tax;Time-series;ARIMA
    日期: 2011-12-01
    上傳時間: 2016-04-22 13:47:14 (UTC+8)
    出版者: Springer New York LLC
    摘要: It is known that taxation on alcohol products
    may effectively reduce the alcohol consumption. However,
    whether alcohol taxation may lead to a decrease in alcohol
    attributed disease mortality (ADM) has been inclusively.
    We conducted this time-series analysis to assess the effect
    of alcohol tax policy intervention in 2002 on rate of ADM
    in Taiwan. Mortality data were retrieved from Taiwan’s
    Death Registry. We employed the autoregression integrated
    moving average technique to examine secular patterns
    of quarterly rate of ADM in residents aged 15 or
    above between 1991 and 2007, and to determine whether
    alcohol tax policy intervention, imposed in January 2002,
    had affected the time trend in rate of ADM in subsequent
    years. We observed a statistically significant reduction in
    the rate of ADM following the implementation of alcohol
    tax policy for all sex- and age-specific segments of population.
    Further analyses revealed that the effect was most
    obvious in men aged 15–64 years, who showed an abrupt
    decline in AMD rate (10.9%) in the first quarter of 2002.
    For elderly men and women, the tax intervention was
    followed by a gradually declining trend of ADM, with
    a magnitude ranging from 0.53% per season (elderly
    women) to 0.63% per season (elderly men). This study
    demonstrated that alcohol taxation policy may pose
    favorite influences on the time trend of ADM rate in
    Taiwan, and such influence was most noteworthy in young and middle aged men.
    關聯: Journal of Community Health 36(6), pp.986-991
    DOI: 10.1007/s10900-011-9398-y
    顯示於類別:[統計學系暨研究所] 期刊論文

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