以分量迴歸分析與分量神經網路建構營建企業評價模型

淡江大學機構典藏 > 工學院 > 土木工程學系暨研究所 > 學位論文 > Item 987654321/105627

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题名:	以分量迴歸分析與分量神經網路建構營建企業評價模型
其它题名:	Building valuation model of enterprise values for construction enterprise with quantile regression analysis and quantile neural networks
作者:	詹翔安;Zhan, Siang-An
贡献者:	淡江大學土木工程學系碩士班葉怡成;Yeh, I-Cheng
关键词:	盈餘;資產;分量迴歸分析;營建企業;企業價值;評價模型;earnings;Asset;component regression analysis;construction enterprises;enterprise value;Evaluation Model
日期:	2015
上传时间:	2016-01-22 15:00:57 (UTC+8)
摘要:	企業經營的主要目標為極大化企業價值，為了達成此目標，需有合理的模型來評估企業的價值。本文提出收益資產複合基礎法以補現有企業評價模型之不足，並以分量迴歸分析與分量神經網路估計企業價值的分佈，最後實證研究建築業與營造業這兩種營建企業與其他產業的最適企業評價模型之差異。由於上市上櫃公司的股價乘以總股數得到的總市值合理地呈現企業價值，因此本文以股市年財報歷史資料庫做為實證的資料來源，共有14985筆資料。結論如下：(1) 收益資產複合基礎法比傳統的市場法更能準確地預測企業的市場價值。(2) 分量迴歸分析與分量神經網路可以估計企業價值的分佈。(3) 在特定股東權益報酬率下，公司的股價淨值比呈現對數常態分佈。股價淨值比乘以企業帳面淨值即得到企業的市場價值，因此企業的市場價值也呈現對數常態分佈。(4) 企業評價具有產業區別性。如果忽略產業區別性，用全體產業的企業評價模型來評價建築業、營造業公司會有明顯高估的現象。(5) 各產業在ROE大於0與小於0的二種情況，PBR的評價曲線的形態很不相同。在ROE大於0的情況，ROE越大，PBR越大；但在ROE小於0的情況，ROE越大，PBR幾乎不變。因此在ROE大於0的情況，成長價值模式是一個跨產業普遍適用的合理假設模型，但在ROE小於0的情況，成長價值模式並不適用。 The main goal of business is to maximize the enterprise value. To achieve this goal, it is important to build reasonable models to assess the enterprise value. This paper proposes an earnings-based and asset-based hybrid approach to supplement the existing valuation models, presents using quantile regression analysis and quantile neural networks to estimate the distribution of the enterprise value, and finally, explores the difference between the optimum valuation models for construction enterprises and other enterprises. Since the publicly traded company''s share price multiplied by the total number of shares was the reasonable estimation of the enterprise value, the stock market historical database was employed as the source of empirical data, a total of 14,985 data available. The following conclusions were obtained: (1) the proposed earnings-based and asset-based hybrid approach can more accurately predict the market value of the enterprise than the traditional approach. (2) The distribution of enterprise value can be estimated with quantile regression analysis and quantile neural networks. (3) At a specific return on equity, the company''s price-to-book value ratio presents a logarithmic normal distribution. The enterprise value can be obtained by multiplying the book value with the ratio, so the enterprise value also shows a logarithmic normal distribution. (4) The business valuation model of property development and construction industries is quite different from those of other industries. The enterprise values of the property development and construction industries can be significantly overestimated if the business valuation model for total industry is applied. (5) The patterns of Price-to-Book value ratio (PBR) curves are quite different in cases of the ROEs being larger or smaller than zero. The PBR becomes larger if the ROE is larger than zero and increasing. On the other hand, the PBR remains almost unchanged if the ROE is smaller than zero and decreasing. The Growth Value Model is highly useful and effective in various industries only if the ROE is larger than zero.
显示于类别:	[土木工程學系暨研究所] 學位論文

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