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|Title: ||交通資訊影響下之用路人路徑選擇行為 : 累計期望理論模型之建構與探討|
|Other Titles: ||Road users’ routing choices under the influence of traffic information : development and investigation of cumulative prospect theory|
|Authors: ||田宜欣;Tien, Yi-Hsin|
|Keywords: ||累計期望模式;參考點;風險態度;交通資訊不確定性;控制實驗;路徑選擇;Cumulative Prospect Theory;reference point;risk attitude;Information Uncertainty;Controlled Experiment;Route Choice|
|Issue Date: ||2016-01-22 14:56:41 (UTC+8)|
Based on uncertain variation of traffic flow of network, traffic information provided by traffic managers need to reflect uncertain traffic status in network. On the other hand, drivers’ route choice behavior toward uncertain traffic information are affected by their essential properties and experiences themselves. One of choice behavior theories which with risk concept—cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is developed initially in 1979, were applied originally to research investment, finance related fields, in recent years CPT are applied to survey drivers’ route choice behavior, which traffic information described by possible outcome(eg.travel time and correspond possibilities), and some studies reached achievements. However, some model construction and experimental design of CPT on traffic issues were founded while viewing applied CPT traffic studies, and this study mainly research traffic issues of CPT including: setting of dynamic reference point, dynamic route choice effect included, extending limited information outcome status, expected values of outcome variation status of route alternatives, and risk attitude grouping depend on decision behavior characteristics. This study adopted controlled experiment method, conducting route decision behavior by a static questionnaire and a dynamic experiment respectively, controlling two contexts experimental design: one was controlling completion of travel time information of routes, the other was controlling differences and similarities of expected value, travel time and corresponded possibilities information of route alternatives, which to survey drivers’ route choice behavior and risk attitude when encountering uncertain information based on cumulative prospect theory.
The tasks of this study were in three folds: the first task was a questionnaire to investigate subjects’ basic information and decision behavior toward obtaining uncertain outcome probabilities information. The second task was a verisimilitude dynamic controlled experiment, by designing dynamic information guidance surroundings to measure and research subjects’ route choice behavior on two different completion level of travel time information, and construct model by CPT and calibrated parameters. The third task was conducting a systematic comparison two different level of complete outcome probability information of CPT explain abilities, risk attitude and the reference point changes.
Conclude the main findings in this study are summarize in the following:
1. Respectively design two outcome probability information and three outcome probability information to construct dynamic controlled experiment based on CPT, finding drivers’ risk attitude was similar, which means drivers’ decision behavior were less affected by complete level of traffic information.
2. Trough mean absolute deviation to measure model explain ability under different information, we found the explain abilities of giving two outcome probabilities information based on CPT is best.
3.Campared the questionnaire results and dynamic controlled experiment results, people tend to risk averse attitude in questionnaire results, on the other hand, people tend to risk seeking attitude in dynamic controlled experiment results, hence driver didn’t keep consistency of decision standard.
4. Drivers’ route choice behavior is obvious affected by possibilities in traffic information under controlling expected mean, travel time and correspond probabilities.
|Appears in Collections:||[運輸管理學系暨研究所] 學位論文|
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