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|Other Titles: ||Fertility and pension system under income uncertainty|
|Authors: ||王翊凱;Wang, Yi-Kai|
|Keywords: ||生育;年金制度;所得不確定;Fertility;Pension System;income uncertainty|
|Issue Date: ||2016-01-22 14:51:07 (UTC+8)|
Recently, the phenomenon of the extremely low fertility has spread all over the world. Most early research stressed that it was resulted from the increases of the labor participation rate, wage level and educational status of female population. These factors have now been relatively stable; yet, the total fertility rate still keeps declining in many countries. This implies that there must be new factors that underlie the recent fertility trend. The low fertility is always accompanied by the aging population. It follows a problem that governments are facing; that is – how to provide income support for the elderly. A pension system is one of the most important programs.
This study proposes a cross-generation fertility model, with both self-interest and altruistic motivations and a pay-as-you-go pension system, to investigate the determination of fertility, especially focusing on the influence of the enforcement of pensions. Given that the future of economic development is uncertain, parents can’t precisely predict their children’s income in adulthood. Hence, this study also extends the fertility model to an uncertain one to explore parents’ decision on fertility based on the beliefs about children’s future income and to compare the results with those obtained under certainty. Except the theoretical analysis, this study carries out numerical stimulations under various regimes. We first simulate a situation with no pensions, and observe how exogenous variables affect parents’ decisions on fertility, savings, and bequest, respectively. Then we introduce a pension system and make further comparisons.
This study finds the potential reasons of low fertility, including an increase in raising costs, a decrease of parents’ wealth, more emphasis on parents’ own consumption or the giving of bequest, and the pessimistic expectation on children’s income. Furthermore, this study asserts that the enforcement of pension programs is probably a new cause of the persistence of low fertility. While people believe the economy is going worse in the future and the prediction about their children’s income is pessimistic, the influence of pay-as-you-go pensions on fertility turns to be negative. If people predict their children’s income is extremely low, then the enforcement of pension programs will worsen the low fertility.
|Appears in Collections:||[經濟學系暨研究所] 學位論文|
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