本文以臺灣1981年至2014年的隔夜拆款利率為對象，分析臺灣中央銀行調整短期利率的方式是否與泰勒法則的內容相符，並討論短期利率的調整是否具平滑的性質。 研究過程利用兩階段最小平方法與一般動差法，分別對後顧式泰勒法則與前瞻式泰勒法則進行估計。根據實證估計結果，研究所獲得的主要結論為：1、臺灣中央銀行主要依據貨膨脹變化作為調整短期利率的依據，顯示中央銀行貨幣政策主要是以因應通貨膨脹變化為目標。2、前瞻式泰勒法則的估計結果較後顧式泰勒法則能解釋短期利率變化，顯示中央銀行的貨幣政策是以前瞻式的方式決定。3、短期利率的變化具有平滑化的現象，顯示臺灣中央銀行貨幣政策內容具有慣性 (inertia) 的性質。 This study investigates whether the central bank of Taiwan adjusts the interest rate according to the content of Taylor rule and whether the monetary policy incorporates the property interest rate smoothing. We estimate the backward-looking Taylor’s Rule and forward-looking Taylor’s Rule respectively through the methods of two-stage Least Squares and generalized method of moments. According to the empirical results, it concludes that: (1) the central bank adjusts the short-term interest rate according to the changes in inflation and this implies the anti-inflation policy in the main goal of Taiwan central bank monetary policy. (2) The performance of forward-looking Taylor rule is better than that of backward-looking Taylor rule and this suggests the central bank of Taiwan adopts a forward-looking behavior when setting monetary policy. (3) The central bank of Taiwan adopts interest rate smoothing policy and this implies the monetary policy with the property of inertia.
