本研究利用台幣傳統型保單，分析人壽保險保單失效之因素，建立羅吉斯迴歸(Logistic regression)模型及最小平方法迴歸(Ordinary Least Square,OLS)模型，分析被保險人購買單一契約及同時購買兩種契約之停效機率、停效且終結機率、停效保單終結機率及停效到終結之反應時間；我們並從保單持有人及銷售通路特性找出影響保單失效之關鍵因素，本研究之結論如下： 一、產品特性實證分析：結果顯示開始還本年度與保單失效不顯著，即無法推論，同時購買兩張保單之脫退率低於僅購買一張保單。 二、保單持有人特性實證分析：結果顯示年齡、繳費頻率、扣繳繳費、居住地區、體況、有、無貸款與保單失效有關；其中以繳費頻率為年繳、扣繳繳費，顯著且具有解釋能力。 三、銷售通路特性實證分析：結果顯示保代比二階通路較會失效；業務員專業能力部份以業務員之年齡、年資及教育程度，對招攬之保單失效機率，顯著且具有解釋能力。 建議壽險公司應持續分析保單脫退之影響因素，並建立預警及管理機制。 This study uses traditional police to analyze the factors affecting life insurance policy lapse, establishing logistic regression model and ordinary least square (OLS) model to analyze the probability of lapse, the probability of no continue, the probability of end, and the response time from lapse to end in situations that insured purchase only one contract and that purchase two contracts at the same time. We find the key factors affecting lapse with the characteristic of policy owner and marketing channel. In the product characteristic analysis, the results indicated that the starting year of repaying principal has no significant relation with lapse, which means it cannot be deduced that the lapse rate of buying two polices simultaneously is lower than buying one police only. The result of the characteristic of policy owner analysis shows that age, the frequency of paying fees, withholding insurance premium, place of residence, health condition, and having loan or not have relation to lapse. Paying fees annually and withholding insurance premium have significant relations with lapse. The result of the characteristic of marketing channel analysis shows that insurance agents have more possibilities for failure than two level channel. In the professional of salesman part, age, seniority, and educational status have significant relations with lapse. We suggest that life insurance companies should continue to analyze the factors of the policy lapse and to establish early warning and management mechanism.